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成都市半永久漂眉成都天之美美容诊所做眉毛好吗博尔塔拉博乐市做化妆造型多少钱 Antarctic Science Inspection南极考察On November 19, 1984, the Chinese first Antarctic science inspection team started on a journey to Antarctica by the oceanographic research ship ;Xiangyanghong-X; from the Port of Shanghai. The expedition consisting of 591 members from all over China, covered a voyage of 26433.7 sea miles and this joumey lasted 142 days. The members of the Chinese Antarctic Expedition carried out scientific research on biology, geology, physiognomy, upper-atmospheric physics, seismology, meteorology, mapping and marine science as well as making routine observations on such subjects as human medicine and environmental science, etc. Chinese Antarctic Great Wall Station was built on Feb. 20, 1985, located at the southern tip of King George Island in the Shetland Islands of West Antarctica at 62012#39;59;S, 58057#39;52;W. Chinese Antarctic Zhongshan Station built on Feb. 26, 1989, is located at the Larsemann Hills of Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica at 69022#39;24;S, 76022#39;40;E. China is planning to set up a third station at the summit of Dome A, Antarctica, during 2008 ~ 2010.1984年11月19日,中国南极考察委员会派出的第一南极考察队从上海乘“向阳红10号”出发,赴南极洲和南太平洋进行综合性科学考察。这考察队由来自全国591人组成。考察活动历时142天,航程26433.7海里。考察队进行了生物、地质、地貌、高层大气物理、地震、气象、测绘和海洋科学等领域的考察及医药和环境状况的多学科调查。1985年2月20日,中国首次在南极洲南端得兰群岛的乔治王岛上建成中国第一个南极科学考察基地——中国南极长城站,站址在南纬62 012 #39;59”,西经58057#39;52”处。1989年2月26日,又在东南极大陆拉斯曼丘陵上建成中国第二个科学考察基地——中国南极中山站,其坐标为南纬69022#39;24”、东经760 22#39;40”。中国从2008年起开始在南极内陆冰盖建立第三个南极科学考察站,计划2010年建成。 /201603/430109Ma Jun, a former journalist who has become one of China’s most prominent environmentalists, was recently honored with a Skoll Award for Social Entrepreneurship for the work of his nongovernmental organization, the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, in increasing awareness about sources of pollution in China.In an interview, he described recent changes in the public’s concerns about the environment, his efforts to increase transparency about the sources of pollution and his organization’s launch of a new version of a mobile phone application that allows users to track the state of air and water degradation and learn how to make more environmentally sound decisions when they shop. Excerpts follow:作为中国最为杰出的环保主义人士之一,曾作过记者的马军所创办的非政府组织公众与环境研究中心(Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs)增强了中国公众对污染源的意识。近日,他因此获颁“斯科尔社会企业家奖”(Skoll Award for Social Entrepreneurship)。在接受采访时,马军谈到了公众近年在环境关注方面的转变,自己在提高污染源透明度方面的努力,以及公众与环境研究中心所推出的新版移动应用,它能够帮助用户追踪各省空气和水质恶化的情况,并且学习在购物时如何才能做到更加环保。 采访节选如下:Q. How did you come up with the idea for this app?问:制作这个应用的想法是怎么来的?A. It was 2013. At that time, after we released the pollution map on the PC platform, we were able to motivate more than 1,700 companies to change their behavior. But there were many more and obviously we needed to scale up our work.答:那是2013年的事。当时我们在PC平台上推出了污染地图后,成功地动员了超过1700家污染企业改变他们的排污行为。但是还有更多这样的企业,很明显,我们需要扩大工作规模。We needed more people to join this effort and we needed a higher level of transparency. So we decided to launch a transparency initiative with 25 organizations and N.G.O.s calling for a total release of monitoring data.我们需要更多人一起共同努力,需要更高的透明度。所以我们决定同25家组织和NGO一起发起一场透明度倡议,呼吁发布整体监测数据。Our first request was for online monitoring data. For more than 10 years this kind of data could only be accessed by environmental agencies, not by the public. To our surprise, the Ministry of Environmental Protection came up with a bylaw to require real-time disclosure.我们首先要求的是在线监测数据。在过去十多年里,只有环保部门才能获取这类数据,公众是无法获得的。不过让我们惊讶的是,国家环保部发布了一项规定,要求对数据进行实时披露。Starting in 2004, more than 20 provinces created platforms to carry real-time monitoring data on China’s largest industries.2004年开始,20多个省搭建了平台,公布对中国最大几个行业的实时监测数据。Toward the end of 2013 we started preparing this app. The real-time disclosure created a need and also made it possible to sustain such a product.到2013年底,我们开始筹备这款应用。数据的实时披露创造了一种需求,同时也使它能撑得起这样一个产品。The mobile Internet is so popular. We believe it can help people to access the data and, more than that, tap into social media. So people can not only access monitoring data but also share it.移动互联网非常受欢迎。我们相信它不仅能够帮助人们获取监测数据,还能让人们通过利用社交媒体分享数据。Q. How does the app work?问:它是怎么用的呢?A. The 1.0 version was launched on June 9, 2013. It provided people access to air quality data in 190 cities, plus monitoring data for major air pollution emitters. Air quality data is something that people really need in China. Many cities can’t meet healthy air quality standards, and people check air quality data like they check weather forecasts.答:我们在2013年6月9号推出了应用的1.0 版本。它向人们提供190座城市的空气质量数据,以及主要空气污染源的监测数据。空气质量数据是中国人特别需要的东西。很多城市无法达到健康的空气质量标准,人们像查看天气预报一样频繁地查看空气质量数据。Then we added monitoring data. There are many people who don’t just want to know which day the air is bad and when they need to keep their children indoors, they want to solve this problem. This app gives them chance to join the fight against pollution.之后我们增加了监测数据。很多人不只是想知道哪一天空气糟糕,什么时候孩子不宜出门,他们想要解决这个问题。这款应用提供机会让他们一起加入对抗污染行列。They can share monitoring data on Weibo and let more people understand the pollution problem and the violation record of those major emitters.人们可以通过微来分享监测数据,让更多的人了解污染问题和主要污染源的违法记录。Through this more than 400 emitters have openly addressed their emissions records. Sometimes they claim something is wrong with the data. Many more explain what went wrong and how they solved the problem. Some provide detailed correction plans. In Shandong Province, government agencies gave them deadlines to fix the problem. We created a countdown clock attached to each factory, so when users click it they can see the corrective action plan with the countdown clock.超过400家污染企业对他们的污染记录做出了公开回应。有些时候,污染企业声称数据有误。更多的时候则是对污染问题和他们的解决方案进行解释。有些企业则提供了详细的整改方案。在山东省,政府机构要求企业限期整顿污染问题。我们在应用上给每一家工厂设置了倒计时,这样用户点开应用就能看到整改行动计划和倒计时。If they comply with the standards, the company turns blue, otherwise it’s shown in red. It’s quite visual and the whole process is under public scrutiny.如果企业遵守标准,那么它们在应用上就会显示为蓝色,否则就为红色。这是相当形象的,整个过程都受到了公众的监督。The 1.0 version only addresses air quality, but the new version, which is being officially launched on the 28th [of April], will help people access water quality data for rivers and lakes in different parts of China and monitoring data for major sewage plants, paper mills, dye houses and chemical factories.新版本的应用将于4月28号正式推出。和只提供空气质量数据的1.0版本不同, 新版本的应用将会帮助人们获取中国各地的河流湖泊的水质数据,以及主要污水处理厂、造纸厂、印染厂和化工厂的监测数据。Q. How many downloads have you had?问:已经有多少下载量?A. Including tests of the 2.0 version, so far more than three million.答:包括2.0测试版本,目前已有超过300万次下载。There has been such interaction between ordinary people and environmental agencies. I haven’t seen anything quite like this before.普通民众和环境部门之间的互动非常活跃,这是我以前从未见过的。Q. What has the official response been? Sometimes from the government you see both sides. They want public involvement, but they’re also wary.问:官方的反应怎么样?有时政府表现出两面性,他们想要公众参与,但又很警惕。A. I would say that’s definitely true with our app. The most proactive players are Shandong and Zhejiang provinces and a few others. There are also many local environmental agencies that have concerns and complaints. It caught some unprepared, when you suddenly get so many reports against some of the largest companies in a region.对我们的应用而言,真的是这样。最积极的参与者在山东、浙江以及其他几个省份。也有许多地方的环境部门有担心和抱怨。有的地方觉得猝不及防,突然收到那么多针对当地大公司的举报。Sometimes they have gaps in their capacity, human resources and budget. And sometimes they have restrictions. The local officials, their superiors, interfere with enforcement. They get stuck in the middle.他们有时在能力、人力资源和财政方面有困难。有时还遇到限制。地方官员,他们的上级,还会强制干预,这让他们左右为难。We need to communicate with those local agencies to try to help them deal with this, to work out plans to handle this new situation.我们需要和那些地方上的政府部门沟通,帮助他们想出处理这种新情况的办法。There are proactive ones. In Shandong, the head of the provincial Environmental Protection bureau invited us there. That’s a province with 100 million people burning 400 million tons of coal a year, probably half the total U.S. consumption. It’s quite energy intensive.有的很积极。在山东,省环保局的领导向我们发出了邀请。这个有着一亿人口的能源消耗大省,每年燃烧四亿吨煤,几乎相当于全美国一半的消耗量。I thought we were going to be under pressure, but actually he said, “This is exactly what we want. I’ve been told to solve this smog problem. We try hard but we can’t do it single-handedly. We need the public. The app will help. We just want make sure people don’t misinterpret the fact we have more red dots.”我当时以为是要向我们施压,但是那位领导说,“这就是我们想要的。我受命要解决这个雾霾问题。我们很努力,但是仅靠我们是不行的。我们需要公众。这款应用会起作用。我们只是想确保不要被人误解,为什么我们的红点特别多。”We help them explain [to citizens] it’s better to have an environmental agency give more comprehensive data.我们帮他们(对公众)解释,环境部门提供更详实的数据是件好事。Last year there was a statement by the premier [Li Keqiang] about going to war against pollution. Actions followed to really make it happen. In my view this decision to make online monitoring data transparent, this is a sign of China’s political will to fight pollution. I said that in the Skoll Award ceremony, and it got a standing ovation. It’s clear that if you give data to people you empower them. It’s no longer possible to continue to cover up or give continued protection to major polluters.去年[李克强]总理做出了向污染宣战的声明。随后有切实的行动。在我看来,这项让在线监督数据更透明的决定,表明中国是愿意打击污染的。我在斯科尔颁奖典礼上这么说了,观众都起立鼓掌。很明显如果你把数据公布给民众,就不会有遮掩或者是继续保护主要污染者的事了。In China the biggest barrier is not technology or money. It’s lack of motivation. Enforcement remains weak. In the West, people go to court. In China that judicial protection is not yet y. We need to find alternative ways. In my view public participation is one of the few options.在中国最大的障碍不是技术或者钱,而是缺乏动力。环境执法部门依然弱势。在西方可以上法庭。而在中国,司法保护还没准备好。我们需要找到更多方式。在我看来公众参与就是其中之一。If people can check on their cellphone who is in violation, those who gave protection [to polluters] can be held accountable.如果人们能在手机上找到谁在违法,那些给予(污染者)保护的人就能受到问责。Q. Do you think public attitudes about pollution are changing?问:你认为公众对污染的态度在改变吗?A. Over all in China there is so much more recognition. I basically think this is a clear sign for the central government. There is political will to try to solve the problem. They understand this matter is a public health issue, a resource issue, a social stability issue and, last but not least, there’s the global issue to fight climate change. There’s a recognition. They are genuinely trying to bring this pollution issue under control. They created an air action plan and a water action plan.答:总的来说认识上已经有很大提高。基本上我认为这对中央政府是一个清晰信号。他们有政治意愿试图解决问题。他们明白这事关公众健康问题、资源问题、社会稳定问题,尤其还有应对气候变化的全球问题。有了这样的共识,他们真心想要控制污染问题,还就空气和水的问题分别制定了行动方案。Having said that, on the ground it’s still challenging to turn this into action. There are so much interests that could be offended, that could be impacted. And also there’s the gap we have in environmental governance. Because the cost of violations is still lower than the cost of compliance, market forces are not on our side.即便如此,要把这些变为行动在事实上仍有困难。有太多利益会被冒犯,会被影响。同时在环境治理方面也有缺口。因为违规的代价仍旧低于合规,市场的力量没有体现出来。Even from the government side there’s a recognition that fighting pollution needs public participation. That’s why last year we saw the Environmental Protection Law revised for the first time in 25 years. It created a special chapter with a title on transparency and public participation. It shows there’s more social consensus for the need of transparency.连政府方面都承认,治理污染需要公众参与。这也是为什么我们看到去年环境保护法得到了25年来的第一次修改修订。新的环保法专门加入了一个以信息公开和公众参与为题的章节。这展现了需要更多透明度的社会共识。Q. What was your reaction to receiving a Skoll Award for Social Entrepreneurship this month in Oxford?问:你对本月去牛津接受“斯科尔社会企业家奖”作何感想?A. Of course I’m honored, but also quite humbled. They’ve done it for quite a few years, with hundreds of social entrepreneurs recognized in different parts of the world. This is the first time there’s been someone from China. I think this will be a major support.答:当我很荣幸,也感到受宠若惊。他们颁发这个奖已经好几年了,全球各地数百位社会企业家获得了他们的嘉许。这是首次有中国人获奖。我认为这是对我们的巨大持。The meeting itself has aly benefited us because we can learn so much from other social entrepreneurs. This helps us to gain credibility with the business community, because some of the largest multinationals are there. And then the other people, the other awardees, I think some were quite surprised about our work because this is a different type of story than they usually hear from China.这个会议本身已经令我们受益,因为我们可以向其他社会企业家借鉴良多。它也有助于我们赢得商业界的信任,因为有一些大型跨国公司也在场。那里还有其他人,其他获奖者,我感觉其中有些人对我们的工作感到非常惊讶,因为这与他们通常听到的中国的事情不太一样。Q. The award comes with .25 million in prize money. What will you do with it?问:这个奖项有125万美元的奖金。你会怎么花这些钱呢?A. We will spend most of that to build on our pollution map. We now have a 2.0 version called the Blue Map. We hope the image of the blue sky that has been lost in most of our cities can inspire people to join the effort. We will use most of the prize money to try to further develop that.答:我们会把大部分钱花在绘制污染地图上。我们现在有一个2.0版本,称为“蔚蓝地图”。我们希望蓝天的图片可以激励人们加入这项活动,因为中国大部分城市的天空都不再蔚蓝了。我们会把大部分奖金用在进一步开发这个地图上。One of the functions we are going to add is taking a picture, so you can actually get data printed on that. So people can share their own pictures on social media and get data on that from our sources.我们要添加拍照功能,这样你就可以在自己的照片上显示从我们的数据源获得的数据,然后你可以在社交媒体上分享这些照片,更多的人就可以看到我们的数据。Another, much bigger function we need is to add a platform for green consumerism. It is quite important for us to engage with consumers. If we help people visualize the link between air and water pollution, factory behavior and then consumer choice. Then we develop a methodology to score those brands. If we help to visualize that, then we provide another way for people to fight pollution. I hope this gives those brands a better incentive for responsible corporate behavior.另外,我们还需要一个更大的功能,就是增加一个绿色消费平台。让消费者参与进来,这对我们很重要。如果我们把空气和水污染、工厂的行为以及消费者的选择之间的联系进行可视化,然后制定一种方法来给那些品牌打分。如果我们做出这种可视化的资料,那么我们就提供了另一种方式,让人们来与污染做斗争。我希望这是一种更好的激励方式,来促进那些品牌采取负责任的企业行为。With the launch of the 2.0 version, air quality data will be extended from 190 to 380 cities in China every hour. We will also have some forecasts, not just weather forecasts but also forecasts of air quality, so people better arrange their activities to avoid the worst exposure. For the first time it will have data on water quality in rivers and lakes in different parts of China. China has made remarkable progress. Three years ago no cities in China released PM 2.5 [fine particulate matter] data. Today there are 380 that do.随着2.0版本的推出,我们提供每小时空气质量数据的中国城市数目将从原来的190个增加到380个。我们也会提供一些预报,不仅仅是天气预报,也包括空气质量预报,让人们更好地安排自己的活动,避开最糟糕的环境。这也会是首次为中国不同地区的江河湖泊提供水质数据。中国已经取得了显著的进展。三年前,中国没有任何城市公布PM 2.5[细颗粒物]数据。如今已经有380个城市在这么做。We have to handle this quite carefully. Transparency is what we depend on. It’s very positive for the government. We give credit to the government. But it’s not easy. I hope that this can continue. If it does, it will drive more polluting factories to change. This boosts confidence for further transparency, which I think is so important.我们必须相当小心地开展这些工作。透明度是我们的立足之所。政府对此是非常明确的。这方面我们要肯定政府。但是这并不容易。我希望能持续下去。如果真能继续,它就会推动更多污染企业做出改变。而这将进一步提高人们对透明度的信心,我认为这一点极为重要。 /201505/373184四川绣眉的价钱

雅安做美容纹绣多少钱I’m writing these words in York, the city in which, two centuries ago, the British justice system meted out harsh punishments — including execution — to men found guilty of participating in Luddite attacks on spinning and weaving machines. By a curious coincidence, I’ve just Walter Isaacson’s article in the FT explaining how wrong-headed the Luddites were. I’m not so sure.这篇文章是我在约克写下的。两个世纪以前,在这座城市,英国司法系统对捣毁纺纱机和编织机的卢德分子(卢德(Luddite)是19世纪初捣毁机器的英国手工业者——译者注)处以严厉惩罚——包括极刑。因为一个奇怪的巧合,我刚刚阅读了沃尔特#8226;艾萨克森(Walter Isaacson)在英国《金融时报》上发表的文章,他在文中解释了卢德分子的观念如何错误。我对此不是很肯定。“Back then, some believed technology would create unemployment,” writes Isaacson. “They were wrong.”“当时,一些人认为技术会造成失业,”艾萨克森写道,“他们错了。”No doubt such befuddled people did exist, and they still do today. But this is a straw man: we can all see, as Isaacson does, that technology has made us richer while employment is as high as ever. (The least appreciated job-creating invention may well have been the washing machine, which helped turn housewives into women with salaries.)毫无疑问,当时确实存在这样的糊涂人,今天也一样。但这是显而易见的:就像艾萨克森那样,我们都能看到,技术让我们更富有,同时就业也保持在高水平。(在创造就业的发明中,洗衣机大概是最未受赏识的一项,它使家庭主妇能够成为领薪水的职业女性。)The Luddites themselves had a more subtle view than Isaacson suggests, and one which is as relevant as ever. They believed that the machines were altering economic power in the textile industry, favouring factory owners and low-skilled labourers at the expense of skilled craftsmen. They wanted to defend their interests and they did so violently. As the historian Eric Hobsbawm put it, their frame-breaking activity was “collective bargaining by riot” and “simply a technique of trade unionism” in the days before formal unions existed.卢德分子的观点比艾萨克森描述的更加细腻,也一如既往地相关。他们相信,机器改变了纺织业的经济实力格局,让工厂主和低技能劳动者受益,牺牲了技术熟练的手工艺人。他们想要捍卫自己的利益,并为此采取了暴力的方式。就如历史学家埃里克#8226;霍布斯鲍姆(Eric Hobsbawm)所说的,他们打破既定模式的行动相当于“通过暴乱形式进行的集体谈判”,相当于正式公会出现之前的“工会主义手法”。To put it another way, the Luddites weren’t idiots who thought that machines would destroy jobs in general; they were skilled workers who thought that machines would devalue their specific jobs and their specific skills. They were right about that, and sufficiently determined that stopping them required more than 10,000 troops at a time when the British army might have preferred to focus on Napoleon.换言之卢德分子并不是认为机器会从总体上破坏就业的傻子;他们是一群技术熟练工,认为机器会使他们的特定工作和技能贬值。在这一点上,他们是对的,而且拥有足够强大的决心,以至于在应该全力与拿破仑战斗的时期,英国调派了超过1万陆军兵力阻止这些卢德分子。The Luddite anxiety has been dormant for many years but has recently enjoyed a resurgence. This is partly because journalists fear for their own jobs. Technological change has hit us in several ways — by moving attention online, where (so far) it is harder to charge money for subscriptions or advertising; by empowering unpaid writers to reach a large audience through blogging; and even by introducing robo-hacks, algorithms that can and do extract data from corporate reports and turn them into financial journalism written in plain(ish) English. No wonder human journalists have started writing about the economic damage the robots may wreak.多年以来,勒德派的焦虑一直蛰伏着,但最近这种焦虑卷土重来。部分原因是记者们担心自己的工作。技术变革以好几种方式冲击着我们——把人们的注意力移至线上,加大了(到目前为止)对订阅收费或者销售广告的难度;让无薪的作者通过客接触到大批读者;甚至还有机器人写手——用算法从公司报告中萃取数据,转化成用(基本上)直白的英语撰写的财经新闻。难怪记者们已开始撰写关于机器人可能造成经济损害的报道。Another reason for the robo-panic is concern about the economic situation in general. Bored of blaming bankers, we blame robots too, and not entirely without reason. Inequality has risen sharply over the past 30 years. Many economists believe that this is partly because technological change has favoured a few highly skilled workers (and perhaps also more mundane trades such as cleaning) at the expense of the middle classes.机器人恐慌情绪的另一个原因是对整体经济形势的担忧。我们厌倦了责怪家,现在我们也责怪机器人,而且并非全无道理。过去30年间,不平等程度急剧上升。许多经济学家认为,部分原因是技术变革偏袒少数高技能员工(可能也有利于某些比较平凡的职业,比如清洁工作),而牺牲了中产阶级的利益。Finally, there is the observation that computers continue to develop at an exponential pace and are starting to make inroads in hitherto unexpected places — witness the self-driving car, voice-activated personal assistants and automated language translation. It is a long way from the spinning jenny to Siri.最后,人们也注意到计算机持续以指数级速度发展,开始进入此前意想不到的领域——自动驾驶汽车、声控个人助理和自动语言翻译就是例。从珍妮纺纱机到Siri,科技取得了长足进展。What are we to make of all this? One view is that this is business as usual. We’ve had dramatic technological change for the past 300 years but it’s fine: we adapt, we still have jobs, we are incomparably richer — and the big headache of modernity isn’t unemployment but climate change.我们该从这一切得出什么结论?一个观点是:这是一种常态。过去300年来我们经历了巨大的技术变革,没出什么问题:我们适应了,我们依然有工作,还比以前富有得多——现代世界的大问题并不是失业,而是气候变化。A second view is that this time is radically different: the robots will, before long, render many people economically valueless — simply incapable of earning a living wage in a market economy. There will be plenty of money around but it will flow to the owners of the machines, and maybe also to the government through taxation. In principle, all could be well in such a future but it would require a radical reimagining of how an economy could work. The state, not the market, would be the arbiter of who gets what. Such a world is probably not imminent but, by 2050, who knows?第二种观点是,这一次是截然不同的:不久以后,机器人会使许多人失去经济价值——无法在市场经济中挣到足以维生的工资。会有大量资金流通,但这些财富会流向机器的所有者,或者同时通过征税流向政府。原则上,在这样的未来情形中,一切都可能很好,但这需要人们对经济运行体制彻底转变想法。国家,而不是市场,将成为决定谁得到什么的裁决者。这样的世界或许不会很快到来,但是,谁知道到了2050年会怎样呢?#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.The third perspective is what we might call the neo-Luddite view: that technology may not destroy jobs in aggregate but rather changes the demand for skills in ways that are real and troubling. Median incomes in the US have been stagnant for decades. There are many explanations for that, including globalisation and the decline of collective bargaining, but technological change is foremost among them.第三种观点可以被称为新卢德派观点:技术可能不会在总量上消除工作岗位,但技术造成的技能需求变化将是真实存在且令人不安的。数十年来美国的中值收入一直原地踏步。对此有很多种解释,包括全球化以及集体谈判的衰落,但技术变革是最重要的一种解释。If the neo-Luddites are right, then the challenge in front of us is simply to adapt. Individual workers, companies and the political system will have to deal with wrenching economic changes as old industries are destroyed and new ones created. That seems a plausible view of the near future.如果新卢德派是对的,那么我们面前的挑战就是去适应它。员工个人、企业和政治体制需要应对痛苦的经济变化,旧的行业被淘汰,新的行业应运而生。这似乎是对近期未来的一种可信看法。But there is a final perspective that doesn’t get as much attention as it might: it’s that technological change is too slow, not too fast. The robo-booster theory implies a short-term surge in jobs, as all those lovely new machines are designed and built and installed, followed by a long-term surge in productivity as the robots make the economy ruthlessly efficient. It is hard to see much sign of either trend in the economic statistics. Productivity, in particular, has been disappointing in the US and utterly dismal in the UK. Where are the robots when we need them?但还有最后一种观点似乎没有得到太多的关注:那就是技术变革太慢,而非太快。机器人助推器理论暗示,由于机器需要人工进行设计、制造和安装,就业会在短期内激增,此后长期生产率大幅提高,机器人让经济效率高得无情。目前我们还很难从经济统计中看到上述趋势的迹象。尤其是,近年美国的生产率令人失望,而英国更是糟糕透顶。当我们需要机器人的时候,它们在哪?Tim Harford is the author of ‘The Undercover Economist Strikes Back’.本文作者蒂姆#8226;哈福德(Tim Harford)著有《卧底经济学家反击战》(The Undercover Economist Strikes Back) /201503/366741成都市如何淡化唇纹 南充名人化妆美甲纹绣做眉毛好吗

昆明市修眉绣眉毛漂眉雕眉 When Steve Jobs died in 2011, iPhone sales were still doubling year on year. It is a safe bet that his successor, Tim Cook, is going to preside over the end of continuous growth. In quarterly earnings in two weeks, analysts still expect Apple to have sold 1m or more phones than the 74.5m it achieved in the same quarter last year, with Chinese demand crucial. If it turns out that Apple has sold fewer, it will be a blow to the credibility of Mr Cook, who primed the market to expect growth. But the timing hardly matters. If it is not coming this quarter, the decline is priced in for the next one.2011年史蒂夫吠布斯(Steve Jobs)去世的时候,iPhone销量还在翻番地增长。几乎可以肯定,他的继任者蒂姆錠克(Tim Cook)将在任期内眼看着这股持续增长势头终结。苹果将于两周内发布季度财报,分析师们仍预期iPhone销量将比去年同期的7450万部增加100万部以上,其中中国的需求是关键。如果销量下滑,将对库克本人的信誉造成打击,因为他事先放出的风声让市场认为增长可期。但时间点并不重要,如果这个季度销量没有下滑,投资者也预期下个季度就会下滑。So what? For all its “fanboy” customers, Apple has some Jeremiah shareholders. Since it reported the most profitable quarter in corporate history 12 months ago, its shares have fallen 15 per cent. Yet the stock trades at just 10 times forward earnings. Strip out the massive cash pile and it trades at less than 8 times. Investors know that the end of rampant growth is nigh.所以呢?尽管果粉众多,一些股东却抱着悲观态度。自12个月前报告公司史上最盈利的季度业绩以来,苹果股价下跌了15%。然而该公司股票的市盈率仅为10倍。如果不算大量的现金储备,市盈率还不到8倍。投资者知道,迅猛的增长快要结束了。Having risen to well over 50 per cent of group revenues, of course the iPhone matters. But maturity does not mean extinction, and just because Apple has become a phone company does not mean that it is all it ever will be.iPhone对集团营收的贡献已经远高于50%,当然十分重要。但成熟并不意味着一定会走向消亡,仅仅因为苹果成了一家手机公司也并不意味着它将永远只是一家手机公司。The important metric for measuring iPhone success over the next couple of years is not how many iPhones are sold in a particular quarter — but how long those phones last. Apple hopes that more consumers will switch to its new upgrade programme, which incentivises them to buy a device every 12 months. Part of the bull case outlined by Mr Cook three months ago was the relatively small number of iPhone users who had upgraded to the iPhone 6 — fewer than 35 per cent.在接下来几年,衡量iPhone是否成功,关键不是看某个季度卖出了多少部iPhone,而要看手机换代的时间。苹果希望更多消费者升级其新程序,这将激励他们每12个月买一部手机。3个月前,库克概述了看好苹果的理由,其中之一是升级到iPhone 6的iPhone用户比例相对较小,不到35%。That cuts both ways, though. A recent survey by Accenture found that the proportion of consumers who expected to buy a smartphone in the next 12 months had fallen to 48 per cent from 54 per cent last year; the drop was particularly severe in China. Another survey by Mizuho found that 81 per cent of iPhone users expected to hang on to their next device for longer, an estimated 27 months compared with 20 months. The iPhone 5 has demonstrated more staying power than previous versions of the device; it has not yet been rendered obsolete by more processing power or killer features from subsequent iterations. In Apple’s sales pitch to worrywart shareholders, that is the wrong sort of iPhone endurance.不过,此事有利有弊。埃森哲(Accenture)最近的一项调查发现,打算在接下来12个月内购买一部智能手机的消费者比例从去年的54%降至48%;在中国下滑得更厉害。瑞穗(Mizuho)的另一项调查发现,81%的iPhone用户预计下一部手机会使用更长时间,估计比目前所用手机的20个月多7个月。iPhone 5比前几代产品更为经久不衰;之后的产品更强的处理能力或者杀手级特色功能都未能淘汰iPhone 5。在苹果对忧心忡忡的股东的宣传中,iPhone的这种耐久可不是好事。 /201601/423410成都玉之光美容医院做眉毛好吗成都市纹绣视频



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