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2017年12月16日 20:56:35|来源:国际在线|编辑:中国互动
For the first half of my life, international politics was defined by the cold war. The fall of the Berlin Wall ended that era and began another one: the age of globalisation. Now, 25 years later, it feels like we are once again witnessing the close of an era.在我的前半生,国际政治格局是由冷战决定的。柏林墙的倒塌终结了冷战时代,开启了另一个时代:全球化时代。如今,25年过去,我们似乎正再次见一个时代的结束。The sense that things are changing is strongest in the realm of ideas. In the past few years, the west has lost confidence in the strength of the three props on which the post-cold war world has been constructed: markets, democracy and American power.这种世事无常的感觉在意识形态领域最为强烈。在过去几年里,西方对撑起冷战后世界的三大柱的力量失去了信心,它们是:市场、民主和美国力量。The success of these three ideas was, of course, connected. Once the cold war had ended it was natural to ask why the western system had prevailed. The obvious conclusion was that democratic, market-based systems had simply outperformed command economies and authoritarian politics. As the popular saying went: “Freedom works.The result was that the US was not just the only superpower left standing. It also enjoyed intellectual hegemony.这三种观念的成功当然是相互关连的。冷战一结束,人们自然会提出一个问题:为什么西方制度获胜了?最明显的结论是,民主的、基于市场的制度就是比计划经济和威权政治奀?套用当时的流行说法:“自由成功了。”结果是,美国不仅成了唯一屹立不倒的超级大国,它还享有观念霸权。After the fall of the wall, there was a new vigour behind the sp of market economics and democratic politics around the world. It was appropriate that the free-market consensus championed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund came to be known as the “Washington consensus柏林墙倒塌后,市场经济和民主政治在全球的传播焕发了新的活力。世界银World Bank)和国际货币基金组IMF)所倡导的那种自由市场共识被称为“华盛顿共识”,这个名称是恰如其分的。The political equivalent of the Washington consensus was the belief that democracy would eventually triumph not just in eastern Europe but all over the world. And in the 1990s countries as diverse as South Africa, Chile and Indonesia did indeed complete successful transitions to democracy. Underpinning these economic and political developments was the fact that the US was the unchallenged global superpower and at the centre of the military and strategic system all over the world from Latin America to east Asia, the Middle East and Europe.与华盛顿共识对应的政治共识是:相信民主最终会获取胜利,不止在东欧,还将在全世界。上世纪90年代,南非、智利和印度尼西亚等差异巨大的国家,确实都成功完成了向民主的转型。撑这些经济和政治动向的是一个客观事实,即美国是无人可以挑战的全球超级大国,占据全世界——从拉丁美洲到东亚、中东和欧洲——军事和战略体系的中心。In many ways that is the world we still live in. And yet there are growing doubts in the west about the trinity of ideas around which the post cold-war world has been constructed: markets, democracy and American power. In each case, there was a signature event that served to undermine confidence.从很多方面而言,我们依然生活在这样一个世界。然而西方对撑冷战后世界的三大观念——市场、民主和美国力量——越来越怀疑。对于每一个观念,都有一个标志性事件足以动摇人们对它的信心。The faith in free markets was severely shaken by the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Great Recession and has never really recovered. Although the global depression that many feared was avoided, the exuberant belief in the ability of free markets to raise living standards all over the world has not returned. In much of the west, economic debate is instead dominated by discussion of income inequality with Europe adding an extra layer of anxiety about the euro and high unemployment. Star emerging markets such as Brazil and India have lost their fizz, and even China is slowing. The belief that there is a market-based formula out there that all sensible policy makers can adopt a “Washington consensushas faded, to be replaced by a global lack of consensus.2008年的金融危机和随后的经济大衰退(Great Recession)——迄今没有真正恢复——严重动摇了人们对自由市场的信心。虽然许多人所担心的全球性衰退没有发生,但人们不再对自由市场有能力提高全世界生活水平抱有强烈信念。在西方世界大部分地区,主导经济辩论的反而是关于收入不平等的讨论,在欧洲,还要加上两个令人担忧的问题——欧元和高失业率。巴西、印度等新兴市场之星已经失去了活力,就连中国的经济都在放缓。对于存在一个基于市场的标准方案、可供所有明智的政策制定者采纳的信念,即“华盛顿共识”,已逐渐消失,取而代之的是全球性的缺乏共识。Democratic evangelism, meanwhile, has been undermined by the horrors unleashed by the Arab uprisings. The wave of revolutionary change that hit the Middle East in 2011 initially looked like the Arab equivalent of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Authoritarian systems were tumbling and new democracies seemed to be emerging. But the failure of democracy to take root in any of the countries that underwent revolutions, with the exception of Tunisia, has undermined faith in the inevitable advance of political freedom.与此同时,阿拉伯地区此起彼伏的起义所带来的恐惧,打击了对民主的狂热。这股在2011年冲击中东的革命浪潮,最初看上去像阿拉伯版的柏林墙倒塌。专制政体被推翻,新的民主国家似乎即将诞生。但除突尼斯以外,民主没有在任何一个经历了革命的国家扎下根来,动摇了政治自由必将推进的信念。Just as troubling, in some ways, is an emerging loss of faith in the ability of established democracies to deliver competent government. In the US, respect for Congress is at near-record lows. In European states such as Italy and France, the political systems seem incapable of delivering reform or growth and voters are flirting with extremist parties.某些方面而言同样令人不安的是,人们开始对成熟民主国家提供称职治理的能力丧失信心。在美国,国会的威望已接近历史最低水平。在意大利、法国等欧洲国家,其政治制度似乎无法为改革或增长提供土壤,选民开始跟极端主义政党眉目传情。The third prop of the age of globalisation is American power. That, too, looks less reliable than it did a decade ago. Here the central event was the Iraq war.全球化时代的第三个柱是美国的实力。这一点看起来似乎也没有十年前那么可靠,就这一点而言的核心事件是伊拉克战争。That conflict, unleashed by President George#8201;W#8201;Bush, initially looked like a triumphant demonstration of US might as Saddam Hussein was swept from power. But America’s inability to stabilise Iraq or Afghanistan, despite many years of effort, has demonstrated that while the US military can destroy a hostile regime in weeks, it cannot guarantee a stable postwar settlement. More than a decade after the fall of Baghdad, America is back at war in Iraq and the Middle East as a whole is in a state of violent anarchy.一开始,萨达#8226;侯赛Saddam Hussein)被扫地下台,这场小布什(George W.#8201;Bush)总统发动的战争似乎成功明了美国的实力。但美国努力多年,仍无力让伊拉克或阿富汗恢复稳定,明了美军虽能在数周内摧毁一个敌对政权,却不能为一个稳定的战后安排打包票。在巴格达陷落十多年后,美国眼下又重返伊拉克战场,而整个中东都正处于暴力无政府状态。The rise of China has also raised questions about how long America’s reign as “sole superpowercan continue. In October the IMF announced that measured in terms of purchasing power China is now the world’s largest economy. It is still miles away from matching America’s international political reach. But America’s own ability and willingness to sustain its role as global hegemon is open to question.中国的崛起也提出一个问题:美国的“唯一超级大国”配地位还能维持多久?去年10月,IMF宣布,以购买力计算,中国已成为全球最大经济体。中国与美国的国际政治影响力还相差甚远,但美国本身在维持全球霸主地位方面的能力和意愿都值得商榷。That said, it is worth remembering that the fall of the Berlin Wall came at a time when many in the US were obsessed with the rise of Japan. That should serve as a reminder of how quickly the intellectual climate can shift and fashionable preoccupations fade. But, while the start of the year has seen a revival of the US economy, the revival of the west’s intellectual self-confidence still looks a long way off.即便如此,应该记住的是,柏林墙倒塌的时候,许多美国人正纠结于日本的崛起。我们应引以为戒,记住观念氛围可以转变得多么迅速,流行的偏见可以消失得多么快。不过,虽然今年年初美国经济已出现复苏的迹象,想恢复西方世界的观念自信看起来仍有很长的路要走。来 /201501/354503

Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putins bombing campaign in Syria. 西方领导人如果在日子难熬的经济衰退期间发起海外军事行动,都会尝到说国民为其买单的苦头。但俄罗斯政府上周五晚向国家杜马(Duma)提交2016年预算草案时,甚至没人提到弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)总统在叙利亚发起的轰炸行动。Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the countrys economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening. 油价下跌、卢布疲软以及西方制裁已造成俄罗斯经济今年上半年萎缩3.4%,由于俄罗斯一半的预算依靠与石油相关的财政收入,这迫使莫斯科在一些方面勒紧腰带。Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent. 例如,根据预算,明年养老金的增幅将不超%——远低于12%的通胀率。Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the militarys pockets, say defence experts. 防务专家称,尽管如此,莫斯科能够轻松负担得起在叙利亚的军事行动——既是因为与美国的类似作战行动相比,俄军的开较少,也是因为连续17年的军费增长以及不透明的预算帮助充实了俄军的底气。Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Janes, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations. 根据防务研究机构简氏防IHS Janes)以及英国《金融时报》的计算,即使俄罗斯继续以当前水平进行一整年的空中打击,所需资金也不016年国防预算的3%。“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between .3m and m a day,said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Janes. 简氏防务高级分析师本·穆尔斯(Ben Moores)表示:“我们认为,像他们如今正在开展的这类行动,每天的花费介于230万至400万美元之间。”A sum of Rbs3.15tn (bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years. 共计3.15万亿卢布10亿美元)已被指定用于明年的国防出。上周,俄政府扭转了一些早先计划的国防预算削减,因此,2016年的国防预算将比今年增加0.8%,但其在公共出总额和国内生产总GDP)所占比重将出现多年来的首次略微减少。However, more than a quarter of this years budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret. 然而,今年预算的逾四分之一被划拨给了军事开,而军事预算的绝大部分都是机密。This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west. 缺乏公众监督以及财政负担不明显,让普京得以继续甚至扩大他对西方高调发起的地缘政治挑战。On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russias three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscows military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent. 俄罗斯国家电视台的不间断报道(将俄在叙利亚持续已3周的轰炸行动描述为打击邪恶的斗争)产生了效果,独立民调机构列瓦达(Levada)发现,对莫斯科发起的军事行动的持率已从9月下旬的14%飙升至0%。Mr Putins support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week. 政府持的民意调查机构VTsIOM上周称,普京的持率创下89.9%的历史新高。Mr Moores calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support. 简氏防务的穆尔斯对俄罗斯参战成本的计算基于这样假设:俄罗斯在拉塔基Latakia)空军基地拥有36架战斗机0架直升机,平均每天出0架次,每架次投掷5枚炸弹。此外,他还算入了俄罗斯部署的至500名官兵,以及俄海军的持。According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan. 简氏防务的数据显示,相比美军在阿富汗部署同样数量军人每日所需的大00万美元开销,俄罗斯维持叙利亚驻军所需费用仅为十分之一多一点。This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than sp out in combat. 这是因为俄罗斯可通过海路补给军队以节省燃料,俄军官兵的薪水、伙食及医疗费用更低,而且俄军事人员据信大都集中在基地,而非分散于许多前沿阵地。According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly bn in its 14-month campaign against Isis Islamist fighters roughly m a day. 五角大楼近期公布的数据显示,打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)伊斯兰主义武装分4个月以来,美国迄今已在军事行动上出0亿美元——每天约1000万美元。Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscows opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending. 其他外国及俄罗斯防务专家称,鉴于莫斯科方面不透明的国防预算,准确计算出干预叙利亚的花费是不可能的。但他们一致认为,与总军事开相比,这很可能只是很小一部分。“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our countrys military budget,said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. ;The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.; “这(叙利亚军事行动开)将消失在我国军事预算的巨大黑洞中,”莫斯科盖达尔经济政策研究所(Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)军事经济学专家瓦西里?扎采Vasily Zatsepin)说,“我们国防出的透明度正随着国防部长的更替而不断降低。”Russias national defence budget accounts for less than half of the countrys total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development. 根据伯明翰大University of Birmingham)俄罗斯军事专家朱利安·库珀(Julian Cooper)的分析,俄罗斯国防预算占该国总军事开的不到一半,后者预计今年将达到GDP.42%。除此之外,俄军每年在武器采购、维护与开发上的出相当于国防预算0%。A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises. 一名政府高官称,预计叙利亚军事行动的花销将通过缩减国内军事演练的次数和规模来弥补。俄国防部并不披露此类演练的详尽开。IHSs calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putins birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was ;very expensive;, but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway. 简氏防务的计算没有包含10日(普京生日当天)向叙利亚反对派武装分子发射6枚巡航导弹。一名俄罗斯官员称,使用导弹“非常昂贵”,但防务专家指出,俄军本来就准备作为演练的一部分发射一些导弹,尽管数量较少。Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war. 俄罗斯军事专家称,其他几种军费开类别也提供了可用于叙利亚战争的储备。“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank. 俄罗斯防务智库战略与技术分析中Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies)主任鲁斯兰·普霍夫(Ruslan Pukhov)说:“虽然官方称俄罗斯武装部队拥00万人,大家都知道实际数字更接5万,但财政部仍按100万人拨款。”Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said. 他说,国防部所称的一些开——如发给士兵的奖金——可能被转拨为战争出。Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multiyear armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air forces fuel bill. 多位防务分析师补充说,一项多年军备计划本来就预计会出现的放缓,将为在叙利亚的军事行动腾出资金。此外,他们认为,莫斯科正通过使用库存的过期弹药,并让叙利亚负担俄空军的一部分燃料费用,来降低战争出。来 /201510/405797

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