当前位置:黑龙江地方站首页 > 龙江新闻 > 正文


2017年10月24日 13:51:58    日报  参与评论()人

白银绣眉飘眉多少钱青海省做半永久韩式眉多少钱What were they thinking? It is extraordinary to a succession of official reports arguing, rightly, that a vote to leave the EU would impose long-term damage and a short-term shock. What sort of government would run such a risk, particularly when the economy has barely recovered from the financial crisis of less than a decade ago? The answer is one that has put the needs of short-term party management above its responsibility for the country’s welfare. David Cameron, prime minister, might soon be known as the man who left the UK in far-from-splendid isolation.他们在想什么?看着一系列的官方报告正确说明退出欧盟将对英国造成长期损害及短期冲击,令人感到非同寻常。什么样的政府甘冒公投的风险——特别是在经济刚刚从不到10年前的金融危机中复苏之际?是,一个把短期政党管理需要置于对国民福利的责任之上的政府。英国首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)或许很快就会因使英国陷入不光的孤立而闻名。The Treasury has aly argued that leaving the EU might lower real gross domestic product by between 3.4 and 9.5 per cent in the long term. This is broadly in line with estimates from other reputable forecasters. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, a proponent of leaving, argues that the UK would enjoy a jump of 4 per cent in aggregate economic welfare after leaving the EU and adopting free trade (an unlikely choice). But this result is an outlier. It rests on implausible assumptions, not least on the impact of EU non-tariff barriers on domestic prices.英国财政部已表示,长远来看,退出欧盟或将使英国实际国内生产总GDP)下降3.4%.5%。这大致与其他受尊敬的预测者的估计相符。而持退欧的卡迪夫大Cardiff University)的帕特里#8226;明福Patrick Minford)则表示,退出欧盟并实行自由贸易(一个不大可能的选择)后,英国的总经济福利将激%。但这种结果是一种例外。其依据的是不合实际的假设,尤其是在欧盟非关税壁垒对国内物价的影响方面。The Treasury has now followed up with a report on the short-term consequences of a vote to leave. In summarising the results, George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has stated that the UK would suffer a “do-it-yourselfrecession if it decided to leave. One might better call it a “do-it-himselfrecession. For it was the government’s decision to take this risk.财政部现已就退欧的短期后果发布了新的报告。在总结这些后果时,财政大臣乔治#8226;奥斯George Osborne)表示,如果决定退欧的话,英国将遭受“自身造成的”衰退。人们或许会更形象地称之为“他自身造成的”衰退。因为是英国政府决定冒这种风险的。The new report’s main scenario predicts that GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to remain, unemployment would be 520,000 higher and the pound would be 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP could be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal Studies adds that, instead of an improvement of bn a year in the fiscal position, as the net contribution to the EU fell, the budget deficit might be between 0bn and 0bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise, sharply slowing the planned fiscal consolidation.这份新报告在设想的主要情景中预测,比起留在欧盟,退欧两年后英国GDP将下.6%,失业人数将多出52万人,英镑将下跌12%。在更糟糕的情景下,GDP可能下降6%,失业人数多2万,英镑下跌15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充表示,财政状况不但不会因省下向欧盟付的预算摊派款而得到每0亿英镑的改善019-20年的预算赤字还可能比留在欧盟高出200亿至400亿英镑,极大地拖累规划中的财政整固。Indeed, the Treasury argues, plausibly, that the very possibility of a vote to leave is aly having an impact on the economy. But an actual vote to do so in June’s referendum would crystallise this risk and create significant and immediate effects, via three channels.实际上,财政部似乎颇有道理地指出,退欧的可能性本身已对经济造成了影响。但假如6月公投结果真的持退欧的话,这种风险将变为现实,并且立即在三方面产生重大影响。The first of these would be the tendency of households and businesses to adjust at once to becoming permanently poorer. This would lead to significant cuts in consumption and investment.第一个影响将是,家庭、企业会立刻作出调整以适应长期变穷的状态。这将导致消费与投资的大幅缩减。The second effect would come from prolonged uncertainty about how the UK’s relations with the EU would work out. It is difficult to exaggerate the scale of this uncertainty. After a vote to leave, the country would not know the complexion of its new government, the UK’s desired approach to renegotiation of its relations with the EU, or the response of the other members, let alone any final outcome. The uncertainty could also be long-lasting. Even the formation of a new government and agreement on its new approach might prove difficult. The likely leaders of a new government have also said things in this campaign that must hinder the chances of reaching an amicable settlement with EU partners.第二个影响将来自英国与欧盟关系走向的长期不确定性。很难夸大这种不确定性。公投决定退出欧盟后,英国人将不知道新政府的倾向、英国重新谈判与欧盟的关系时希望采用的方式、或是欧盟其他成员国的反应,更不用说任何最终结果了。不确定性也会长期存在。甚至组建新政府以及就其处理与欧盟关系的新策略达成一致可能都有困难。可能成为新政府领导人的那些人还在这场运动中说了一些话,这些话肯定有损于英国与欧盟伙伴达成和解的机会。The third effect would be the shift in financial conditions. Markets would at once reassess the UK’s economic prospects. Asset prices, including the exchange rate (as the Bank of England has aly noted), are likely to adjust downwards immediately. An appreciable increase in the risk premia on UK assets could emerge. Asset price volatility would also increase. The BoE might face a difficult dilemma, since there is likely to be a simultaneous rise in expected inflation and a decline in expected output in the short term.第三个影响是金融环境的变化。市场会立刻重估英国的经济前景。正如英国央BoE)早已指出的,包括汇率在内的资产价格很可能立即下调。英国资产的风险溢价可能出现大幅上升。资产价格波动也将加剧。英国央行可能面临一种进退两难的境地,因为短期内可能同时出现预期通胀上升和预期产出下降并存的局面。Official sources have described, in painful and quite plausible detail, how far the referendum unleashed by this government is a risky and dangerous gamble with the health of a fragile post-crisis economy. This is apart from the risks to the future cohesion of the UK and, quite possibly, of the EU, too.官方消息人士曾以令人痛苦但似乎非常有道理的细节,描述本届政府发起的公投,是以后危机时代脆弱经济的健康为赌注进行的一场多么冒险和危险的。这还不包括对英国以及很有可能对欧盟未来凝聚力造成的风险。This referendum is, arguably, the most irresponsible act by a British government in my lifetime. To the objection that this is to deny democracy, one can respond that the country was a successful democracy well before it embarked upon such referendums. Furthermore, the right time for a referendum would be when the UK is asked to accept further treaty changes or some other significant alteration in its position in the bloc. Right now one can only hope that the country does not soon learn what it means to divorce in haste and repent at leisure.可以说,此次公投是我有生之年见过的英国政府最不负责任的行为。对于认为不进行公投就意味着拒绝民主的反对观点,我们可以回答,英国在开始进行此类公投很久前便已是成功的民主国家。此外,举行公投的合适时机应是英国被要求接受条约的进一步修订,或是接受英国在欧盟中地位的其他重大变化之时。现在,我们只能希望英国不会很快尝到匆忙退出的代价,不要事后追悔莫及。来 /201606/448011德阳韩式切眉术哪家好 This time last year, I wrote that I have a nightmare vision for 2017: President Trump, President Le Pen, President Putin. 去年这个时候,我写道,我对2017年有一个噩梦般的想象:特朗普总统、勒庞总统,普京总统。So, after Donald Trump’s victory, the next question is whether Marine Le Pen can indeed capture the French presidency?因此,唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)获胜后的下一个问题是,马勒庞(Marine Le Pen)是否能真能成为法国总统?Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a run-off in May against either Fran#231;ois Fillon or Alain Juppé. 在上周末中右翼阵营初选之后,勒庞看上去可能在明年5月份与弗朗索菲永(Fran#231;ois Fillon)或阿朱佩(Alain Juppé)进行终极对决。Both are Hillary Clinton-style establishment figures, who would be ideal opponents for the leader of the far-right.这两人都是希拉里.克林Hillary Clinton)式的建制派人物,将是极右翼领袖勒庞的理想对手。The consequences of a victory for the far-right in France would be drastic for both European and world politics. 如果极右翼在法国获胜,将为欧洲和世界政治带来非常严重的后果。A Le Pen presidency could well lead to the collapse of the EU. 勒庞当上总统很可能导致欧EU)的崩溃。She wants to pull France out of the European single currency and to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.她希望让法国退出欧洲单一货币,并就法国是否留在欧盟举行公投。Even if Ms Le Pen softened her stance in office, it is hard to see how Angela Merkel’s Germany could work with a nationalist and authoritarian France. 即便勒庞上台后软化了自己的立场,也很难设想安格拉.默克Angela Merkel)领导下的德国如何能跟一个民族主义、威权主义的法国携手合作。With Germany and France set on radically different paths, Franco-German antagonism would return to the heart of European politics.随着德国和法国走上截然不同的道路,法德的对立将重回欧洲政治的中心。The global implications of a Le Pen victory would also be severe. 勒庞获胜对全球的影响也将是严重的。Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council would be occupied either by undemocratic governments (Russia and China), or by democracies led by nationalist rightwing leaders (US and France). 在联合国(UN)安全理事Security Council)的五个常任理事国中,有四个将要么是非民主国家(俄罗斯和中国),要么是由民族主义右翼领袖领导的民主国家(美国和法国)。Under such circumstances, the international legal order could crumble, as might once again became right.在这种情况下,国际法律秩序可能崩溃,世界秩序可能再次向右转。Of course, even post-Brexit and post-Trump, there is nothing inevitable about a Le Pen victory in France. 当然,即便在英国退欧和特朗普上台之后,也不存在什么因素决定勒庞必然在法国获得胜利。For what it is worth, the opinion polls still show her likely to lose decisively in the second round of the election. 无论有多少参考价值,民意调查仍然表明,她可能会以明显差距输掉第二轮选举。And although Ms Le Pen has moved to embrace the Trump White House and has been keenly supported by Mr Trump’s alt-right advisers, there are important differences between the Trump and Le Pen phenomenons.虽然勒庞对特朗普政府表示了极大的欢迎,并且得到特朗普的另类右alt-right)顾问的持,但特朗普现象和勒庞现象之间存在着重大区别。Unlike Mr Trump, the National Front has been around for decades and is more of a known quantity to voters. 与特朗普不同的是,国民阵National Front)已经存在了几十年了,在更大程度上已经为选民们所熟悉了。France’s bitter memories of the Vichy regime of the 1940s may also mean that the country is better inoculated against far-right politics than the US.法国对上世纪40年代维希政权的痛苦记忆或许也意味着,比起美国,法国对极右政治更加免疫。Set against that, however, is the possibility that French voters, who might have feared that a Le Pen presidency would turn their country into an international pariah, may now feel that Mr Trump’s victory has given them permission to vote for the far-right.然而,与此相反的一种可能性是,曾担心勒庞把法国变成国际社会贱民的该国选民,现在也许觉得,特朗普当选让他们获得了投票持极右翼的许可。The objective conditions for a turn towards authoritarian nationalism are clearly stronger in France than in the US. 法国转向威权民族主义显然具备比美国更充分的客观条件。France has been subjected to savage terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists. 法国遭到了伊斯兰极端分子的野蛮恐怖主义袭击。There are large, poorly integrated Muslim populations in most big cities. 在大多数大城市中,存在着大量未融入当地社会的的穆斯林人口。Unemployment among the general population is over 10 per cent.全国总人口的失业率超0%。Above all, the political establishment is despised. 最重要的是,政治建制派遭到鄙视。The approval ratings of President Fran#231;ois Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent. 法国总统弗朗索瓦.奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)的持率最近创%的惊人低点。The political, social, economic and international environments could not be more favourable for Ms Le Pen.如今的政治、社会、经济和国际环境对勒庞都简直不能更有利了。In recent years, Ms Le Pen has moved to distance herself from her father, Jean-Marie, whose racist views are embarrassingly open. 近年来,勒庞已跟父亲马里.勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)撇清了干系,后者的种族主义观点是公开的,让人感到难堪。These days, Ms Le Pen’s rhetoric is indeed less inflammatory and dishonest than that of Mr Trump. 近来,勒庞的言论确实没有像特朗普那样煽动性十足和不诚实。But the French far-right leader has had her moments. 但这位法国极右翼领袖也发表过令人瞠目结舌的言论。She has, for example, compared Muslims praying in France’s streets with the Nazi occupation.比如,她曾把在法国街头祈祷的穆斯林与纳粹占领军相比。On the other side of the channel, there might even be some in the British government who would quietly welcome the prospect of a far-right victory in France. 在海峡对岸的英国,政府里甚至可能有些人会暗自希望极右翼在法国取胜。While the current French government is leading the demands that Britain must pay a heavy price for Brexit, Ms Le Pen has applauded the British decision to quit the EU. 法国现政府带头要求英国必须为退欧付出沉重代价,而勒庞赞扬了英国的退欧决定。A Le Pen victory might even solve the Brexit problem since there might no longer be an EU left for the UK to leave. 也许勒庞获胜甚至可能解决掉英国退欧问题,因为欧盟或许将从这个世界上消失。Boris Johnson, UK foreign secretary, hailed the opportunity represented by the election of the pro-Brexit Mr Trump, and might sniff similar opportunities in the rise of Ms Le Pen.英国外交大臣鲍里约翰Boris Johnson)对持英国退欧的特朗普胜选所代表的机会表示欢呼,他或许也在勒庞的崛起中嗅到了类似的机会。More sober heads in London, however, must surely realise that the rise of the French far-right cannot ultimately be good news for Britain. 然而,伦敦更多头脑清醒的人们必须明白,法国极右翼的崛起最终肯定对英国不利。A National Front victory in France would mean that the forces of authoritarian nationalism would be flourishing across Europe, from Moscow to Warsaw to Budapest and Paris. 国民阵线在法国的胜利将意味着,威权民族主义将在整个欧洲抬头——从莫斯科到华沙、再到布达佩斯和巴黎。Under Mr Trump, the US could no longer be relied upon as a stabilising force to push back against political extremism in Europe.在特朗普领导下,美国再也不能像人们指望的那样发挥稳定作用、阻止欧洲政治极端主义兴起了。Instead, many in Europe are now looking towards Ms Merkel, who has just announced that she will be running for a fourth term as German chancellor, next year, as the anchor of European stability. 相反,欧洲许多人目前正把目光投向默克尔,希望她能维系欧洲的稳定。她刚刚宣布明年将参加竞选,如果获胜,将开始第四个总理任期。But the challenges facing Ms Merkel are truly daunting. 但是,默克尔面临的挑战确实很艰巨。She confronts a hostile Russia to the East and a Middle East in flames to the south. 德国东面有敌对的俄罗斯,南面是战火连绵的中东。Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous towards Ms Merkel.特朗普则一直公开对默克尔表示轻蔑。Within the EU, Germany’s relations with southern Europe have been poisoned by the euro crisis, while its relations with eastern Europe have been soured by the refugee crisis. 在欧盟内部,德国与南欧的关系因欧元危机而恶化,与东欧的关系因难民危机而变坏。Meanwhile, Britain has voted to leave the bloc. 同时,英国已投票决定离开欧盟。The election of Ms Le Pen in France could be the final blow to the vision of Europe represented by Ms Merkel, and constructed by generations of European leaders, since the 1950s.若勒庞在法国当选,可能对于由默克尔代表的、自1950年代以来几代欧洲领导人构建的欧洲愿景构成最后一击。来 /201611/479837四川纹绣眉毛

平凉做纹眉多少钱12-year-old girl finds ancient Egyptian amulet12岁女孩发现古埃及护符An ancient Egyptian amulet was uncovered in Jerusalem by a young girl taking part in a family dig in the capital.耶路撒冷小女孩参加“圣殿山筛选项目”考古活动时,发现一古埃及护符。Neshama Spielman, from Jerusalem, found the artifact four years ago at a dig organized by the City of David and the Temple Mount Sifting Project, which works to examine tons of dirt removed without archaeological supervision from the Temple Mount by the Muslim Waqf. Details of the find and its identification, however, have only now been revealed. Spielman, who is aged 12, was just 8 when she made the find.小女孩名叫Neshama Spielman,来自耶路撒冷。她年前在“圣殿山筛选项目”中发现这个护符的。该项目旨在检查从神圣犹太教遗址移来,未经考古检测过的泥土。当年,Spielman只有8岁。The piece was taken away for laboratory testing, and the Spielman family only received a phone call this month telling them the amulet had been identified.后来此护符被拿去实验室检测,知道上个月,Spielman一家才接到电话,被告知检测结果。Spielman was sifting through dirt at the Emek Tzurim national park on the slopes of the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem when she noticed the small rectangular object.当时,Spielman正在耶路撒冷Emek Tzurim国家公园橄榄山的斜坡上检查泥土。突然就注意到了这个小小的矩形物件。Just 21 millimeters long, 16 millimeters high, and 4 millimeters thick, the amulet, of which part is missing, has a “raised decorationon it with a loop at one end that allowed it to be worn on a cord around the neck.该护符只1毫米长6毫米高毫米厚,部分已经缺失。上方凸起的部分有个孔,可以用绳穿起来挂在脖子上。The raised decoration shows a cartouche an oval frame around Egyptian hieroglyphics indicating a royal name. Above the frame archaeologists could make out the symbol of an eye and that of a cobra.凸起那部分有个“涡卷饰品”——(古埃及碑上)在王和神的名字周围的椭圆形装饰。考古学家在上面发现有眼镜蛇一只眼的符号。The amulet has been dated to 3,200 years ago and bears the name of Pharaoh Thutmose III, a prominent figure from the Eighteenth Dynasty who reigned from 1479 E to 1425 E.护符距今已有3200年的历史,上面还刻有“图特斯三世”法老的名字。他于公元前1504至公元前1450年在位统治。“Thutmose III was one of the most important pharaohs in Egypt’s New Kingdom and is credited with establishing the Egyptian imperial province in Canaan,said Gabriel Barkay, the co-founder and director of the Temple Mount Sifting Project.“图特斯三世是埃及新王朝最重要的法老之一。他使埃及在迦南完成了从一个地域性王国向洲际大帝国的质变。”“圣殿山筛选项目”的联合发起人和总负责人Gabriel Barkay如是说。译文属原创,仅供学习和交流使用,未经许可,。来 /201607/453459成都市3d飘眉多少钱 成都市半永久韩式眉哪家好

临夏回族自治州做专业绣眉多少钱 彭州市韩式雾状眉哪家好宜宾韩式飘眉克隆眉韩式平眉



成都素美天姿美容绣眉飘眉多少钱 绵阳微针美白微针抗衰管大夫 [详细]
四川省纹眼线好吗 乌鲁木齐市做平眉多少钱 [详细]
华蓥市修眉哪家好 中华常识内江韩式半永久纹眉哪家好和讯微博 [详细]
中华教育成都美社美甲做眉毛好吗 四川省韩式半永久飘眉多少钱网易专家邛崃市绣眉飘眉多少钱 [详细]