赣州子宫息肉的早期症状医生助手

明星资讯腾讯娱乐2017年11月20日 01:50:06
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An odd thing happened at Donald Trump’s victory rally last week. Having evaded his bouncers, I made my way to the centre of the throng as it awaited The Donald’s arrival. The crowd erupted into boos when Hillary Clinton appeared on the television screen. You could hear a pin drop when Bernie Sanders popped up a few minutes later.在唐纳德礠朗Donald Trump)最近的庆功会上发生了一件奇怪的事情。在避开特朗普的保镖后,我挤入了等待特朗普到来的人群中间。当希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)出现在电视屏幕上时,人群中爆发出一片嘘声。而当几分钟后伯尼儠德Bernie Sanders)出现时,四周静得落针可闻。It was the respect shown by one anti-establishment wave to another. The contrast spoke volumes. They may come from opposite ends of the political spectrum but they are united in antipathy to Mrs Clinton.这是一个反当权派阵营对另一个反当权派阵营展示的尊重。前后的对比充分说明了这点。他们或许来自政治图谱的两个相反的极端,但是他们在反感希拉里上是一致的。It is not easy being Mrs Clinton. During the 1990s she was excoriated as a bra-burning feminist who wanted to socialise the US’s healthcare. Back then it was the establishment who detested her. Today, she is reviled by women and men alike for personifying the establishment. Moreover, her opponent, Mr Sanders, wants to socialise healthcare: Canada and the UK are the single-payer models he would emulate. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is disdained for not wanting to match him. Whatever she does, vilification is assured. As I said, it cannot be easy being Mrs Clinton.希拉里不容易。在上世0年代,人们指责她为希望把美国医保制度社会主义化的激进女权主义者。那时,厌恶她的正是当权派。如今,她因为代表着当权派而受到攻击,攻击她的人既有男性,也有女性。此外,她的竞争对手桑德斯希望将医保制度社会主义化:加拿大和英国的单一给付制是他希望效仿的的模板。希拉里则因不认同他的提议而遭到蔑视。无论她做什么,必然会引来骂声一片。正如我所说的,希拉里的处境不容易。It is about to become harder. In less than two weeks, Mrs Clinton must win the South Carolina primary. Unlike New Hampshire, which was always likely to “feel the Bern South Carolina is solid Clinton territory. It is the first state in her so-called southern firewall against Mr Sanders’s bandwagon. The latest polls give her a 30-point lead. If her margin of victory is below double digits, doubts about her electability will grow. If she wins decisively, last week will look like a blip. A breach in the firewall, on the other hand, could finish her. There is a lot riding on South Carolina.希拉里的处境会愈发艰难。她必须赢得即将到来的南卡罗来纳州的初选。新罕布什尔州原本就是一直可能被桑德斯拿下的,南卡罗来纳州则毋庸置疑是希拉里的地盘。这是她对抗桑德斯阵营的所谓南部防火墙的第一个州。最新的民调显示,希拉里在南卡领0个百分点。如果她在南卡胜出的领先幅度低于两位数,人们对于她能否拿到总统候选人资格就将愈发怀疑。如果她在南卡取得了压倒性胜利,最近的结果看起来就会像是暂时的失利(编者注:希拉里在内华达州民主党党团会议的投票中2%8%险胜桑德斯)。另一方面,假如南卡失守,她的竞选之路就可能走到尽头。南卡一役有很多看头。To seal the deal, Mrs Clinton must perform Houdini-like feats. She must find a way of beating Mr Sanders without going negative. That is the biggest lesson from her New Hampshire defeat. More than nine out of 10 rated Mr Sanders as more honest and trustworthy than Mrs Clinton and they were just the Democratic voters. Second, she needs to bring Mr Sanders down without sounding like a Republican. His plans would push US federal spending up to European levels. Puncturing his dreams without alienating liberals will be a challenge. Third, she must stick to her Obama-third-term script while letting voters know she shares their anger. It is not easy to promise continuity while raging against the status quo.要漂漂亮亮地打赢这一仗,希拉里必须表现出如魔术大师胡迪尼(Houdini)一般的精湛技艺。她必须找到一种能够光明正大地打败桑德斯的方式)。这是她在新罕布什尔的败选带来的最重要的教训。超过十分之九的选民认为桑德斯比希拉里更诚实正直、更值得信任——而这还只是民主党的选民。第二点,她需要既打败桑德斯、又避免听起来像一个共和党人。桑德斯的计划会把美国的联邦出推高至欧洲水平。戳破他的幻梦,而又不失去自由主义者的持,将是一项挑战。第三点,她必须在坚持“奥巴马第三任期”打算的同时,让选民知道她能够感受到他们的愤怒。一方面承诺将保持政策连续性,另一方面斥责现状,这不容易做到。The upside is that figuring out how to defeat Mr Sanders would be good practice for confronting Mr Trump in a presidential election. The two have more in common than their anti-establishment support base. Both have a habit of promising the moon. Mr Sanders would convert the US into a Scandinavian social democracy. Mr Trump would make America great again. Both are arch-fantasists with an ability to recruit voters and appeal to independents. That is where the similarities end. Mr Sanders is a civil opponent. He has refrained from personal attacks on Mrs Clinton’s character. The Donald, on the other hand, knows no boundaries. “If she can’t satisfy Bill Clinton,he said, “how can she satisfy America?”好处在于,搞清楚如何打败桑德斯将会成为一次很好的练习,有利于希拉里在总统竞选中对抗特朗普。特朗普与桑德斯的共同点不止是两人的主要持者都反对当权派,两人还都喜欢开空头票:桑德斯想把美国变成一个斯堪的纳维亚式社会民主国家;特朗普想让美国再次成为一个伟大的国家。两人都有着天马行空的幻想,拥有鼓动人心、吸引独立选民的能力。他们还有一点最大的区别。桑德斯是文明的对手。他始终克制自己不侮辱希拉里的人格。特朗普则没有底线。“如果她无法满足比尔克林Bill Clinton),”他称,“她如何能满足美国?”How indeed? The key is in reminding voters that level-headedness is a virtue. They are also choosing America’s next commander-in-chief. Mr Sanders’s foreign policy boils down to one promise he won’t start any wars. The rest is a replay of his 1960s student radicalism. In the latest Democratic debate, Mr Sanders’s grasp of the world stopped at roughly the midpoint of the cold war. He attacked the US’s overthrow of Iran’s Mossadeq government in 1953. He railed against Henry Kissinger’s secret bombing of Cambodia in the early 1970s. He also stood foursquare behind Franklin Roosevelt’s plea for the US to avoid acting out of fear.这倒真是个问题。关键在于,要提醒选民,头脑冷静是一种美德。选总统也是在选美国的下一任总司令。桑德斯的外交政策可以归结为一个承诺——他不会发动任何战争。其他部分则是重申他在上世纪60年代的学生激进主义。在最近一场民主党辩论中,桑德斯对世界的理解几乎还停留在冷战中点。他抨击了美953年推翻伊朗莫萨德Mossadeq)政府的举动。他痛斥了亨Henry Kissinger)上世0年代初秘密轰炸柬埔寨的行为。他还坚定不移地持富兰克林圠斯Franklin Roosevelt)恳求美国避免因恐惧而采取行动的立场。He was right on every point. But his grasp of the US’s present-day challenges is considerably weaker. When asked to name a foreign policy adviser, Mr Sanders mentioned Lawrence Korb at the Center for American Progress. Mr Korb has met Mr Sanders once for a short briefing. Mr Sanders’s plan to defeat Isis is to persuade “the Muslim countriesto form a coalition. This would involve a highly improbable alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In reality, they would be likelier to turn their guns on each other. “It is a big, complicated world out there,Mrs Clinton reminded him in last week’s debate.他说的都没错。但是对今日美国面临的挑战,他的理解则薄弱得多。当被要求说出一位外交政策顾问时,桑德斯提到了美国进步中Center for American Progress)的劳伦斯科布(Lawrence Korb)。科布见过桑德斯一次,为他做了短暂的简报。桑德斯挫败“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的计划是说“穆斯林国家”组成联盟。这意味着伊朗和沙特阿拉伯结盟——事实上是极为不可能的。在现实世界中,两国更可能刀兵相见。“那是一个庞大而复杂的世界,”希拉里在最近的辩论中提醒他道。At 74, it seems a little late for Mr Sanders to catch up on his homework. Mr Trump, on the other hand, gladly ad to having no advisers. According to him, the US is being screwed by its allies and beaten by its adversaries. As a world class dealmaker, he will put both those issues right. If he needs experts he will hire them. Meanwhile he will “bomb the shitout of Isis. That is about it.桑德斯已4岁了,对他来说现在再去赶功课似乎有点晚了。特朗普则欣然承认他没有顾问。在他看来,美国如今被盟友坑惨了,还遭受着敌人的痛击。作为一个一流的交易撮合者,他会把两个问题统统摆平。如果他需要专家的话,他会聘请他们。与此同时,他会把ISIS“炸出翔”。这差不多就是他的计划了。Mrs Clinton’s immediate fate will be determined by issues closer to home. Can she bring out the African-American vote in South Carolina? Will women return to the fold? The big picture matters to them too. Whatever your view of her, no rival has anything close to Mrs Clinton’s foreign policy experience. Mr Sanders and Mr Trump insist judgment is what matters. So here is a test of Mrs Clinton’s political skills: can she convince voters her opponents lack judgment? There is a big curious world out there waiting to find out.希拉里目前的命运将由跟美国自身更息息相关的问题决定。她能争取到南卡罗来纳的非裔美国人为她投票吗?女性选民会回头持她吗?大局也关系到她们。无论你怎么看待希拉里,希拉里在外交政策上的经验无人能够企及。桑德斯和特朗普坚持认为判断力才是最重要的。那么现在就是考验希拉里政治技巧的时候了:她能向选民明她的竞争对手们判断力不佳吗?整个世界都在好奇地等待揭晓。来 /201602/427721

  Donald Trump’s election campaign played like a special edition of The Apprentice, his best-known reality television vehicle one in which the winner gets to direct the free world rather than a handful of Trump-branded projects.唐纳特朗Donald Trump)的竞选活动就像是他最出名的真人秀《学徒The Apprentice)的一期特别节目,不过获胜者的奖励不是得以执掌几个特朗普旗下的项目,而是得以执掌自由世界。As interesting, and worrying, as the question of what a businessman with no political experience might do to the presidency is what effect Mr Trump’s success could have on business leadership.除了一名毫无政治经验的商人会对总统这一职位产生何种影响这个问题外,特朗普的成功可能对商业领袖产生何种影响也是一个同样有趣而又令人担忧的问题。His victory looks like a throwback to the late 1990s: the older, white, male chief executive in suit and tie, peddling platitudes from a podium. 他的胜利看起来就像倒退到上世纪90年代末:那个西装革履、年迈的、白人男性首席执行官,在宣讲台上兜售着那套陈词滥调。Not that he ever went away, as is obvious from a glance at US corporate boardrooms, where only one in five directors are women and fewer are from minorities.他从未离开,只用撇一眼美国企业的董事会就能明显看出这一点——仅有五分之一的董事为女性,少数族裔董事的比例更少。But the accession of Mr Trump to the top job is not only a comfort to the many executives who look like him. 但特朗普就任最高领导人一职,不仅慰藉了很多看起来像他一样的高管。He’s a businessman, was also a common prefix to votersjustification of their support, as a sample of post-poll vox pops reveals. 正如民调后民意访问的样本所揭示的那样, 他是个商人也是选民们解释自己为何持特朗普的常见开场白。He’s a businessman. 他是个商人。If anyone can fix this mess, he can, Rodney Bridges told reporters in South Carolina; He’s a businessman, not a politician so there’s no BS, offered Cathy House of Washington in another round-up of voter opinions; We need somebody to run [the] country like a businessman, claimed Joseph Baljak in Ohio.如果有谁能解决这个烂摊子的话,那就是他了,罗德尼.布里奇斯(Rodney Bridges)在南卡罗来纳州告诉记者称;他是个商人、不是政客,所以不会胡说八道,华盛顿的凯西.豪斯(Cathy House)在另一项民调提要中表示;我们需要一个像商人一样‘经营’(这个)国家的人,俄亥俄州的约瑟夫.巴利亚克(Joseph Baljak)宣称。Leave aside the questions of whether a country can be run like a company (it really can’t) or whether businessmen have given up spouting BS (they really haven’t), the cult of the imperial business leader clearly persists in the popular imagination. 暂且抛开国家能否像企业一样经营的问题(其实真的不能)不谈、也先不讨论商人是否已经改掉了滔滔不绝地胡说八道的毛病(他们真的没有),对帝王型商业领袖的信仰明显依然存在于大众的想象中。Not the least disturbing aspect of Mr Trump’s election is that his rise is likely to reinforce this religion at businesses that were starting to grow out of it.特朗普的竞选最令人不安的一点是,他的崛起可能会在本已开始摆脱这种信仰的企业界中强化这种信仰。There is a place for top-down leadership. 自上而下的领导方式有其一席之地。One chief executive who had inherited the role from a notoriously autocratic predecessor rebuked me recently for suggesting such leadership traits were outmoded. 最近,一名从出了名得独断专行的前任手中继承衣钵的首席执行官,指责我不应暗示这种领导方式已经过时。On the contrary, he said, executives will always need to be capable of exerting a firm grip in a crisis, say. 他称,事实正好相反,高管们始终都需要能够牢牢掌控局面——比如在危机中。But he added that problems arise when leaders take autocracy to extremes. 但他补充称,当这种独断超过一定限度时,问题就会出现。Even if Mr Trump tempers his worst instincts, or has them checked and balanced by the US political system, the method of his accession has set a terrible leadership example.即便特朗普按耐住自己最糟糕的本能反应、或接受美国政治体制的制衡,他登上总统之位的方式也为各行各业的领袖树立了坏榜样。Gianpiero Petriglieri, of Insead Business School, points out that Mr Trump is not a command-and-control leader in the mould of business geniuses such as Steve Jobs or Henry Ford. 欧洲工商管理学院(Insead Business School)的詹皮耶罗.彼得里列Gianpiero Petriglieri)指出,特朗普不是像史蒂夫.乔布Steve Jobs)和亨福特(Henry Ford)等商业天才那样的指挥控制型领导人。He falls instead into a category of narcissistic leaders. 相反,他属于那种自恋型领导人。When they appeal to the tribal instinct that we are good and they are evil, they risk unleashing forces that are, Prof Petriglieri told me, very hard to command and almost impossible to control.彼得里列里教授告诉我,当他们利用我们是好人,他们是坏人的古老本能时,他们可能会释放出一些非常难以指挥并且几乎无法控制的力量。Some narcissistic traits help leaders make it to the top. 一些自恋特征能够帮助领导人站上权力巅峰。Self-confidence, ambition, extroversion: these are the very essence of what makes a successful candidate in The Apprentice and a critical part of a politician’s surface attraction to voters.自信、野心、外向,这些是造就成功的《学徒》候选人的核心品质,也是政客对选民外在吸引力的关键成分。It is no coincidence that The Apprentice, at least in Mr Trump’s US version, spawns more self-promoting celebrities than successful executives. 《学徒》(至少在特朗普的美国版里)催生的自我推销型名人多过成功高管,这并非偶然。The format, like that of a 21st-century political campaign, encourages candidates to big themselves up at the expense of rivals and even team members. 就像21世纪的政治竞选活动一样,该节目的模式鼓励候选人以牺牲竞争对手、甚至团队成员为代价抬升自己。An analysis of their technical aptitude or capacity for sustained hard work would make for dull television in the same way that Hillary Clinton found such traits turned off many voters.对他们的专业天赋或持续辛勤工作的能力进行分析会让节目变得无趣,就像希拉里.克林Hillary Clinton)发现这些品质会让很多选民失去兴趣一样。In excessive doses, though, narcissism may hinder leaderseffectiveness and even prompt them to take unnecessary risks.不过,自恋过度可能有碍领导人的效率,甚至促使他们冒不必要的风险。After a number of chief executives ran into scandal and opprobrium in the early 2000s, companiesappetite for great man leaders seemed to wane. 2000年代初,在一些CEO们陷入丑闻并遭到指责后,企业对伟人型领导人的兴趣似乎减弱了。Academic attention switched to the question of how groups behaved and the more nuanced and inclusive virtues of collaboration and teamwork.学术界的关注转向群体如何表现以及合作和团队协作等更微妙和具有包容性的美德。But Mr Trump’s success is even now writing itself into leadership guides and business school courses. 但是现在特朗普的成功甚至被写入了领导力指南和商学院的课程里。It is certain to tempt more executives to emulate his self-aggrandisement as a shortcut to power, while neglecting the essential but tricky challenge of how to run the organisation once they get there. 这必然会诱使更多高管去模仿特朗普的自命不凡,以此作为获取权力的捷径,而忽视了在得到权力后所面临的根本而又棘手的挑战——如何管理这个组织。The scrutiny of investors, directors, regulators and media, may find out these tyro corporate leaders before they can do much damage. 股东、董事、监管机构和媒体的仔细审视,或许会在这些新手企业领袖造成重大损害前发现问题。But some will slip through to board level. 但会有一些漏网之鱼溜入董事会级别。Other potential bosses, less Trump-like in look or temperament, will simply never try to get there.其他有潜力到达董事级别、但在形象或性情上不那么像特朗普的人,则永远不会尝试到达那个级别。There is another possibility, of course: the president-elect will rein in his self-regard, cultivating a capacity for deft delegation and diligent management that will fulfil his supportersdesire for an effective businessman-in-chief. 当然,还有另外一种可能性:这位当选总统将收敛他的自恋,培养熟练委派和勤奋管理的能力,满足其持者对一个高效的商人统帅的渴望。On current form, though, that looks a tall order.不过,以目前形势来看,这似乎是一项艰巨的任务。来 /201612/485399

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  Vladimir Putin is full of surprises. His decision to withdraw Russia’s “basic forcesfrom Syria was forecast by no one. The Russian president’s courtiers will presumably be keeping him abreast of the many interpretations of his latest Syria gambit, no doubt emphasising the sagacity and success of his bold intervention in the region. So what does the balance sheet look like? And, in so far as it is possible to discern the motives of this most mercurial of leaders, what are they? 弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)是个充满惊奇的人物。没人预见到他从叙利亚撤出俄军“主要力量”的决定。想必这位俄罗斯总统的下属会时时向他报告人们对他在叙利亚的最新动作的各种解读,他们无疑还会强调他大胆介入该地区的睿智和成功。那么现在的局面是怎样的?如果有可能一窥这位极为善变的领导人的动机,这些动机又是什么呢When the Russian air force entered Syrian airspace last September, three of the president’s aims seemed clear. The first was to salvage the crumbling regime of Bashar al-Assad. The second was to re-establish Russia as an important actor in the Middle East. Mr Putin, who mocks the US and Europe for the fiascos of their regime-changing adventures from Iraq to Libya, also clearly intended to teach the west a lesson and so relieve western pressure resulting from his own intervention in Ukraine. The lesson turned out to be a Russian remake of “shock and awe 去年9月俄罗斯空军进入叙利亚领空的时候,这位总统似乎个明确的目标。首先是挽救摇摇欲坠的巴沙尔#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad)政权。第二是重新确立俄罗斯作为中东地区重要参与者的地位。嘲笑美欧在从伊拉克到利比亚等地改换政权行动的惨败的普京,明显还有意给西方一个教训——并且减轻西方因为普京干预乌克兰事务而对俄罗斯施加的压力。事实表明这个教训是俄罗斯版本的“震慑与威吓”From the outset Russian warplanes struck at Sunni rebels threatening Damascus and Mr Assad’s coastal enclave in north-west Syria, rather than at Isis jihadis a declared target of the operation. He used peace negotiations jointly chaired with the US in Geneva as a smokescreen behind which to lay waste to any middle ground between the Assad regime and Isis. This showed up the west as too feckless to help Sunni rebels whom the US and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey had backed against the Assads. 从一开始,俄罗斯的战斗机打击的就不是其所宣称的行动目标——“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)圣战分子,而是威胁大马士革和阿萨德在叙利亚西北沿海地区飞地的逊尼派反叛分子。普京利用美俄共同主持的日内瓦和平谈判为烟幕,摧毁了阿萨德政权和ISIS之间的任何妥协空间。这让西方帮助逊尼派反叛分子的举动显得毫无意义。美国及其地区盟友沙特和土耳其等国此前一直持这些反叛分子对抗阿萨德政权The regime regained ground. More refugees swarmed to the Turkish border. Mr Putin’s Syria policy was doing double duty as his European policy, exacerbating the migrant crisis pulling the EU apart, and polarising the politics of some of its member states. 阿萨德政权收复了失地。更多难民涌向土耳其边境。普京的叙利亚政策正如他的欧洲政策一样一箭双雕,一方面加深了撕裂欧EU)的移民危机,另一方面也使欧盟的一些成员国的政治两极化A bonus for Mr Putin was to add to the discomfiture of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, through whose territory runs the refugee road to Europe. Having aly contributed to the de facto partition of Syria by hardening the defences of the Assad statelet, Mr Putin then extended Russia’s complicit support to US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia, whose fight against Isis is enabling them to assemble a Kurdish entity below Turkey’s border, the dissolution of which is now Mr Erdogan’s paramount aim. 对普京而言,额外收获是让土耳其总统雷杰#8226;塔伊#8226;埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的处境更为难堪,该国是移民前往欧洲的通路。通过加强阿萨德统辖领土的防务力量,助推叙利亚的事实分裂后,普京又为得到美国持的叙利亚库尔德民兵组织提供持,这些组织与ISIS的斗争使他们得以在土耳其边境下方集结为一个库尔德人群体。促使这个群体解体是埃尔多安目前的首要目标But what is the Kremlin’s game now? The Russian pullback coincides with the resumption of peace talks in Geneva. Despite this month’s partial ceasefire in Syria, these still look forlorn, even if Mr Putin says his aim was always to create conditions for a political transition out of the war. 克里姆林宫现在在打什么算盘呢?在俄罗斯撤军的同一时间,日内瓦的和平谈判也重新启动了。尽管叙利亚本月实现了部分停火,这些谈判看起来依然难以取得成功,即使普京表示他的目标一直是为通过政治手段结束战争创造条件He might conclude that Mr Assad has no long-term future. His minority regime has committed mass murder among the majority Sunni population. Why incur the bitter enmity of Sunnis in Syria, throughout the Middle East and inside Russia’s borders? Russia arguably has most to fear from foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq Isis typically expends European volunteers as suicide bombers to clear a path for elite fighters such as battle-hardened Chechens. 普京可能得出结论,从长期来看阿萨德没有未来。他的少数族裔政权在占多数的逊尼派人口中制造了大规模屠杀。为何要在叙利亚、整个中东和俄罗斯国内招致逊尼派穆斯林的仇恨呢?可以说,俄罗斯最为忧虑的是从叙利亚和伊拉克返回的外籍士兵——ISIS通常将欧洲志愿者用作自杀性炸弹袭击者,为精英战士扫清道路,比如久经沙场的车臣分子Iran, which jointly holds Mr Assad as a ward of state, may also judge that to continue along Russia’s scorched-earth path in Syria would scupper its re-engagement with the west and sabotage any chance it has of being accepted as a legitimate regional power by Sunni Arabs. Russian and Iranian ministers have met several times in Tehran and Moscow over the past month. 和俄方一起将阿萨德作为保护对象的伊朗或者会做出这样的判断:继续俄罗斯在叙利亚的焦土政策会破坏伊朗与西方重新建立的联系,并且毁掉伊朗被逊尼派阿拉伯人接纳为合法地区力量的任何机会。过去一个月中俄罗斯和伊朗的部长们在德黑兰和莫斯科进行了几次会晤So far, so many hypotheses. As some Russian jets start withdrawing, only Mr Putin the geopolitical puppeteer with a taste for intrigue can know if this is the start of Syria’s endgame. 到目前为止有太多的猜测。在一些俄罗斯战机开始撤离之际,只有普京这个带着一丝密谋味道的地缘政治木偶操纵者,才知道这是否是叙利亚终局的开始。来 /201603/432418

  Life expectancy is increasing all over the world. 世界各地的人类预期寿命都在延长。As a result, so are retirement ages. 其结果是,退休年龄也在延后。The striking exception: the highest level of British politics.令人瞩目的例外是英国政坛高层人物的卸任年龄。In the 1800s, most prime ministers were old or exhausted or both when they left office. 9世纪,当英国首相离任时,多数人白发苍苍或是筋疲力尽——或两者兼有。That was still the norm for much of last century. 这种情况在上世纪大部分时间仍是常态。But in recent decades we have had a succession of leaders who either were or imagined themselves in the prime of life when the removal vans arrived. 但最近几十年,我们看到一个又一个领导人在搬家卡车抵达时,要么正值壮年,要么认为自己年富力强。In several cases, they were also in the prime of ambition and anything but reconciled to exchanging the adrenalin of adversarial politics for the ermined world of elder statesmanship. 在数个案例中,他们也正值最具雄心的时候,根本不甘心用对抗性政治生活中的肾上腺素来换取老年政治家的超脱境界。Now we have David Cameron, the youngest premier since Lord Liverpool, the youngest former prime minister since Lord Rosebery. 现在我们有了戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)——自利物浦勋Lord Liverpool)以来最年轻的首相、自罗斯伯里伯爵(Lord Rosebery)以来最年轻的前首相。He could well have another quarter-century of active life. 他很可能还有四分之一个世纪的活跃生活。So how should he spend it?那么他该怎么过呢?He will start by learning the obvious lessons from his predecessorsbehaviour. 他会先从前辈的行为汲取明显教训。Poor Ted Heath spent 20 years undermining his own standing. 可怜的特德#8226;希Ted Heath)花了20年时间毁掉自己的地位。Especially in contrast with Harold Wilson’s meretriciousness, there was a pro-Heath case to be made. 尤其是与哈罗#8226;威尔Harold Wilson)的华而不实相比,当年的希思有一点值得肯定的地方。For all his faults and misjudgments, this was a man of moral seriousness who strove to do the best for his country. 尽管他有种种不足之处和误判,但他真的是一个在道德上一丝不苟、为国家竭尽所能的人。He then became the incredible sulk, behaving with as much dignity as an overtired four-year-old.可后来他变成了一个满腔愤怒的人,表现得就像一个累坏了岁孩子,毫无尊严。Margaret Thatcher was watching and, apparently, pitying (how that would have enraged him, to be pitied by her). 玛格丽特#8226;撒切Margaret Thatcher)看着他,而且显然在可怜他(竟然被她可怜,这会让他多么怒不可遏)。Surely, then, she would show the world how it ought to be done and stride into the post-Downing Street future with her held high? Not a bit of it. 按理说,接下来她会向全世界展示,应该怎样昂首告别唐宁街,迈入之后的人生阶段。To be fair to her, she did have a better excuse than Heath; she had been dismissed with a brutal suddenness. 事实远非如此。说句公道话,撒切尔的借口比希思更好:她被党内同僚突然而无情地赶下了台。She should not, though, have been in the market for excuses. 尽管如此,她不应该找借口。She should not have let herself down.她不应该辜负自己。That leads on to Tony Blair who this week announced that he is closing down an advisory firm from which he has made millions. 随后就是托尼#8226;布莱Tony Blair)——他不久前宣布即将关闭一家让他赚得盆满钵满的咨询公司。In one respect, he could have taken over from Thatcher. 在某些方面,他本可以取代撒切尔。In America, she had been a hero, able to command enormous and justifiable fees for lectures. 在美国,撒切尔曾是英雄,可以理直气壮地为演讲收取巨额费用。Alas, by 2010 the old lioness was fading.可惜,到010年这位年迈的铁娘子身体渐渐不行了。The new hero, Mr Blair, was ideally positioned to fill the vacancy. 新英雄布莱尔处于填补这个空缺的理想地位。To an extent, he did. 在某种程度上,他做到了。But he was brought low by vanity and greed. 但是虚荣和贪婪令他表现得没水平。One can understand why he was tempted to become a Middle East peacemaker for about five minutes. 人们可以理解他为何忍不住担任中东和平特使——持续大分钟。After that, self-knowledge ought to have kicked in. 在那之后,他应该有自知之明。You can fight the Iraq war as an ally of George W Bush or you can try to bring peace to the Muddle [sic] East. 你要么作为乔#8226;W#8226;布什(George W Bush)的盟友打伊拉克战争,要么试着给中东带来和平。Not both. 两者不可兼得。Equally, you can join the board of serious banks whose reputation had survived 2008. 同样,你可以加入一些大牌(其名誉挺过了2008年)的董事会。No one would expect you to do that pro bono. 没人会指望你无偿劳动。You could give advice to respectable foreign governments. 你可以给受人尊敬的外国政府提供咨询。You could also write a book. 你还可以写书。So there were respectable methods of refreshing the bank account. 所以想刷新账户有很多值得尊敬的办法。There were also lucrative alternatives.还有很多赚钱更快的替代选择。Once you let respectability go hang, you could decide to sell your services to anyone who would pay well. 一旦你不再考虑体面,你便可以决定向任何出高价者兜售务。In cash terms, this worked but there was a terrible price. 以金钱而论,这行得通,但是代价惨重。In the all-time prime ministerial rankings, Mr Blair is down there with Lord North, who lost America; Stanley Baldwin, who failed to press ahead with rearmament of Britain in the 1930s, and Anthony Eden of the Suez dégringolade.在历届首相排名中,布莱尔与丢了美国的诺斯勋爵(Lord North)、没能在上世0年代推进重整军备计划的斯坦利#8226;鲍德Stanley Baldwin)、以及因苏伊士运Suez)危机而声名狼藉的安东#8226;艾登(Anthony Eden)同在垫底之列。Indeed, it may be easier to defend them. 的确,为他们辩护可能更容易些。What was the point of Mr Blair winding up his ventures. 布莱尔清盘公司的意义何在?他在几年前就葬送了自己的名誉。He wound up his own reputation several years ago. Nor will the 2010 book, A Journey, help him to recover. 即使他在2010年出版的著作《旅程A Journey)也没能帮他挽回声誉。The Hi, guys style is perfectly suited to the shallowness. 嗨,朋友Hi, guys)的打招呼风格完美适合浅薄风格。People who want to make sense of him will John Chilcot. 想要了解布莱尔的人会去读约翰#8226;奇尔科特爵士(Sir John Chilcot)的报告。Mr Blair gives superficiality a bad name.布莱尔甚至玷污了肤浅一词。That could never be said of Gordon Brown. 这些评价不适用于戈#8226;布朗(Gordon Brown)。If Mr Blair went to the bad, Mr Brown gives a fair impression of going to the mad. 如果说布莱尔变坏了,那么布朗很好地诠释了发疯。Heath’s sullenness invited contempt; Mr Brown’s misery arouses sympathy. 希思的阴沉招人蔑视,而布朗的苦恼引人同情。He is like a great bear who has been struck by lightning.他就像一头被闪电击中的巨熊。In all this unhappiness and unworthiness, there is one splendid exception. 在所有不快乐和不值得尊敬的首相中,有一个卓越的例外。Since he lost office, aged only 54, John Major has done everything right. 自从在年4岁时卸任以来,约#8226;梅杰(John Major)每件事都做得很好。He watches plenty of cricket. 他常常观看板球比赛。He joined the board of the Carlyle Group and gives speeches to worthy audiences. 他加入了美国凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)的董事会,给值得的观众做演讲。He also speaks out when he decides it is time to intervene. 当他决定介入时,他也会表态。When he does so, he always commands headlines and respect.当他这么做时,他总是能登上头条并赢得尊重。Mr Cameron intends to do likewise in the longer fullness. 比梅杰卸任年龄更小的卡梅伦长远而言有着类似打算。In the short run, he means to keep clear of politics, current controversies and, above all, disputes over personalities. 在短期内,他想远离政治、当前的争议、尤其是人际争执。That is why he left the Commons, where his every movement would have been scrutinised for loyalty or disloyalty to his successor. 这是他退出下议院的原因,他在那里的一举一动都会被人置于放大镜下,看他对继任者忠诚或不忠。He wishes Theresa May well and hopes that she achieves all her important goals. 他希望特里萨#8226;Theresa May)一切顺利,希望她能实现她所有的重要目标。But he is certain that, for the time being, the best help he can give is to remain silent, at least in public. 但他肯定,眼下他能给予的最好帮助就是保持沉默,至少在公共场合三缄其口。If she phones him for advice, he will give it and tell no one.如果她打电话向他请教,他会提供建议,并保守秘密。Mr Cameron has an office in St James’s plus a book to write and is throwing himself into the process. 卡梅伦在圣詹姆斯(St James’s)有一间办公室,还要写一本书,目前他已经投入到写作中了。That will be the main call on his time in the next few months. 这将是他未来数月的主要任务。He will also give lectures while involving himself in education and helping good causes, such as the National Citizen Service. 他还将发表演讲,参与教育和帮助慈善事业,比如国家公民务(National Citizen Service)。Although it seems inconceivable that he will not eventually join the odd City board, he is in no hurry. 尽管他最终很可能会加入伦敦金融城的个别董事会,但是他不着急。For the foreseeable future he is also likely to be a candidate for major international roles.在可以预见的未来,他还很可能成为重大国际角色的候选人。Above all, Mr Cameron is determined to enjoy himself and his family. 最重要的是,卡梅伦决心要活在当下、享受天伦之乐。Unlike most premiers Churchill and Thatcher are obvious instances there is no personal incompleteness that only political intensity can assuage. 与大多数首相——丘吉尔和撒切尔是最明显的例子——不同,卡梅伦没有什么个人层面的不完整只有高强度的政治活动才能弥补。He is always happy in his own skin. 他在个人生活中总是知足常乐。For him, the glass really is half full, never half empty. 对他来说,玻璃杯真的是半满,而不是半空的。In that spirit, he is looking forward not back.怀着这样的心情,他向前看而不是回头看。Life expectancy is increasing all over the world. 世界各地的人类预期寿命都在延长。As a result, so are retirement ages. 其结果是,退休年龄也在延后。The striking exception: the highest level of British politics.令人瞩目的例外是英国政坛高层人物的卸任年龄。In the 1800s, most prime ministers were old or exhausted or both when they left office. 9世纪,当英国首相离任时,多数人白发苍苍或是筋疲力尽——或两者兼有。That was still the norm for much of last century. 这种情况在上世纪大部分时间仍是常态。But in recent decades we have had a succession of leaders who either were or imagined themselves in the prime of life when the removal vans arrived. 但最近几十年,我们看到一个又一个领导人在搬家卡车抵达时,要么正值壮年,要么认为自己年富力强。In several cases, they were also in the prime of ambition and anything but reconciled to exchanging the adrenalin of adversarial politics for the ermined world of elder statesmanship. 在数个案例中,他们也正值最具雄心的时候,根本不甘心用对抗性政治生活中的肾上腺素来换取老年政治家的超脱境界。Now we have David Cameron, the youngest premier since Lord Liverpool, the youngest former prime minister since Lord Rosebery. 现在我们有了戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)——自利物浦勋Lord Liverpool)以来最年轻的首相、自罗斯伯里伯爵(Lord Rosebery)以来最年轻的前首相。He could well have another quarter-century of active life. 他很可能还有四分之一个世纪的活跃生活。So how should he spend it?那么他该怎么过呢?He will start by learning the obvious lessons from his predecessorsbehaviour. 他会先从前辈的行为汲取明显教训。Poor Ted Heath spent 20 years undermining his own standing. 可怜的特德#8226;希Ted Heath)花了20年时间毁掉自己的地位。Especially in contrast with Harold Wilson’s meretriciousness, there was a pro-Heath case to be made. 尤其是与哈罗#8226;威尔Harold Wilson)的华而不实相比,当年的希思有一点值得肯定的地方。For all his faults and misjudgments, this was a man of moral seriousness who strove to do the best for his country. 尽管他有种种不足之处和误判,但他真的是一个在道德上一丝不苟、为国家竭尽所能的人。He then became the incredible sulk, behaving with as much dignity as an overtired four-year-old.可后来他变成了一个满腔愤怒的人,表现得就像一个累坏了岁孩子,毫无尊严。Margaret Thatcher was watching and, apparently, pitying (how that would have enraged him, to be pitied by her). 玛格丽特#8226;撒切Margaret Thatcher)看着他,而且显然在可怜他(竟然被她可怜,这会让他多么怒不可遏)。Surely, then, she would show the world how it ought to be done and stride into the post-Downing Street future with her held high? Not a bit of it. 按理说,接下来她会向全世界展示,应该怎样昂首告别唐宁街,迈入之后的人生阶段。To be fair to her, she did have a better excuse than Heath; she had been dismissed with a brutal suddenness. 事实远非如此。说句公道话,撒切尔的借口比希思更好:她被党内同僚突然而无情地赶下了台。She should not, though, have been in the market for excuses. 尽管如此,她不应该找借口。She should not have let herself down.她不应该辜负自己。That leads on to Tony Blair who this week announced that he is closing down an advisory firm from which he has made millions. 随后就是托尼#8226;布莱Tony Blair)——他不久前宣布即将关闭一家让他赚得盆满钵满的咨询公司。In one respect, he could have taken over from Thatcher. 在某些方面,他本可以取代撒切尔。In America, she had been a hero, able to command enormous and justifiable fees for lectures. 在美国,撒切尔曾是英雄,可以理直气壮地为演讲收取巨额费用。Alas, by 2010 the old lioness was fading.可惜,到010年这位年迈的铁娘子身体渐渐不行了。The new hero, Mr Blair, was ideally positioned to fill the vacancy. 新英雄布莱尔处于填补这个空缺的理想地位。To an extent, he did. 在某种程度上,他做到了。But he was brought low by vanity and greed. 但是虚荣和贪婪令他表现得没水平。One can understand why he was tempted to become a Middle East peacemaker for about five minutes. 人们可以理解他为何忍不住担任中东和平特使——持续大分钟。After that, self-knowledge ought to have kicked in. 在那之后,他应该有自知之明。You can fight the Iraq war as an ally of George W Bush or you can try to bring peace to the Muddle [sic] East. 你要么作为乔#8226;W#8226;布什(George W Bush)的盟友打伊拉克战争,要么试着给中东带来和平。Not both. 两者不可兼得。Equally, you can join the board of serious banks whose reputation had survived 2008. 同样,你可以加入一些大牌(其名誉挺过了2008年)的董事会。No one would expect you to do that pro bono. 没人会指望你无偿劳动。You could give advice to respectable foreign governments. 你可以给受人尊敬的外国政府提供咨询。You could also write a book. 你还可以写书。So there were respectable methods of refreshing the bank account. 所以想刷新账户有很多值得尊敬的办法。There were also lucrative alternatives.还有很多赚钱更快的替代选择。Once you let respectability go hang, you could decide to sell your services to anyone who would pay well. 一旦你不再考虑体面,你便可以决定向任何出高价者兜售务。In cash terms, this worked but there was a terrible price. 以金钱而论,这行得通,但是代价惨重。In the all-time prime ministerial rankings, Mr Blair is down there with Lord North, who lost America; Stanley Baldwin, who failed to press ahead with rearmament of Britain in the 1930s, and Anthony Eden of the Suez dégringolade.在历届首相排名中,布莱尔与丢了美国的诺斯勋爵(Lord North)、没能在上世0年代推进重整军备计划的斯坦利#8226;鲍德Stanley Baldwin)、以及因苏伊士运Suez)危机而声名狼藉的安东#8226;艾登(Anthony Eden)同在垫底之列。Indeed, it may be easier to defend them. 的确,为他们辩护可能更容易些。What was the point of Mr Blair winding up his ventures. 布莱尔清盘公司的意义何在?他在几年前就葬送了自己的名誉。He wound up his own reputation several years ago. Nor will the 2010 book, A Journey, help him to recover. 即使他在2010年出版的著作《旅程A Journey)也没能帮他挽回声誉。The Hi, guys style is perfectly suited to the shallowness. 嗨,朋友Hi, guys)的打招呼风格完美适合浅薄风格。People who want to make sense of him will John Chilcot. 想要了解布莱尔的人会去读约翰#8226;奇尔科特爵士(Sir John Chilcot)的报告。Mr Blair gives superficiality a bad name.布莱尔甚至玷污了肤浅一词。That could never be said of Gordon Brown. 这些评价不适用于戈#8226;布朗(Gordon Brown)。If Mr Blair went to the bad, Mr Brown gives a fair impression of going to the mad. 如果说布莱尔变坏了,那么布朗很好地诠释了发疯。Heath’s sullenness invited contempt; Mr Brown’s misery arouses sympathy. 希思的阴沉招人蔑视,而布朗的苦恼引人同情。He is like a great bear who has been struck by lightning.他就像一头被闪电击中的巨熊。In all this unhappiness and unworthiness, there is one splendid exception. 在所有不快乐和不值得尊敬的首相中,有一个卓越的例外。Since he lost office, aged only 54, John Major has done everything right. 自从在年4岁时卸任以来,约#8226;梅杰(John Major)每件事都做得很好。He watches plenty of cricket. 他常常观看板球比赛。He joined the board of the Carlyle Group and gives speeches to worthy audiences. 他加入了美国凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)的董事会,给值得的观众做演讲。He also speaks out when he decides it is time to intervene. 当他决定介入时,他也会表态。When he does so, he always commands headlines and respect.当他这么做时,他总是能登上头条并赢得尊重。Mr Cameron intends to do likewise in the longer fullness. 比梅杰卸任年龄更小的卡梅伦长远而言有着类似打算。In the short run, he means to keep clear of politics, current controversies and, above all, disputes over personalities. 在短期内,他想远离政治、当前的争议、尤其是人际争执。That is why he left the Commons, where his every movement would have been scrutinised for loyalty or disloyalty to his successor. 这是他退出下议院的原因,他在那里的一举一动都会被人置于放大镜下,看他对继任者忠诚或不忠。He wishes Theresa May well and hopes that she achieves all her important goals. 他希望特里萨#8226;Theresa May)一切顺利,希望她能实现她所有的重要目标。But he is certain that, for the time being, the best help he can give is to remain silent, at least in public. 但他肯定,眼下他能给予的最好帮助就是保持沉默,至少在公共场合三缄其口。If she phones him for advice, he will give it and tell no one.如果她打电话向他请教,他会提供建议,并保守秘密。Mr Cameron has an office in St James’s plus a book to write and is throwing himself into the process. 卡梅伦在圣詹姆斯(St James’s)有一间办公室,还要写一本书,目前他已经投入到写作中了。That will be the main call on his time in the next few months. 这将是他未来数月的主要任务。He will also give lectures while involving himself in education and helping good causes, such as the National Citizen Service. 他还将发表演讲,参与教育和帮助慈善事业,比如国家公民务(National Citizen Service)。Although it seems inconceivable that he will not eventually join the odd City board, he is in no hurry. 尽管他最终很可能会加入伦敦金融城的个别董事会,但是他不着急。For the foreseeable future he is also likely to be a candidate for major international roles.在可以预见的未来,他还很可能成为重大国际角色的候选人。Above all, Mr Cameron is determined to enjoy himself and his family. 最重要的是,卡梅伦决心要活在当下、享受天伦之乐。Unlike most premiers Churchill and Thatcher are obvious instances there is no personal incompleteness that only political intensity can assuage. 与大多数首相——丘吉尔和撒切尔是最明显的例子——不同,卡梅伦没有什么个人层面的不完整只有高强度的政治活动才能弥补。He is always happy in his own skin. 他在个人生活中总是知足常乐。For him, the glass really is half full, never half empty. 对他来说,玻璃杯真的是半满,而不是半空的。In that spirit, he is looking forward not back.怀着这样的心情,他向前看而不是回头看 /201610/471039In order to remind the public of its duty to protect the health of future generations, Secretary of State John Kerry brought his young granddaughter with him to the ed Nations as he signed an international commitment to curb the pace of global warming.为了使公众意识到保护后代健康的责任,美国国务卿克里携外孙女在联合国签订了遏制全球变暖步伐的国际协定。Over 150 nations signed the agreement on April 22nd, a truly historic feat based on a previous accord set in Paris that aims to limit the Earths temperature to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.此前,世界各国在巴黎达成共识,一致同意将全球升温幅度限制.5度的范围之内。超50个国家在42日签署协定,这无疑是一个真正的历史性壮举。Kerry hoisted his granddaughter onto his lap in front of a large assembly gathered for the signing ceremony, kissing her on the cheek after adding his signature on behalf of the ed States. Isabelle, 2, is the only child of Kerrys eldest daughter, Alexandra Kerry, and her husband, Julian Dobbs-Higginson.在一个大型签署仪式的集会上,克里代表美国签名后,亲吻了放在膝上的外孙女。伊莎贝尔,这个两岁的小女孩,是克里的大女儿亚历山德拉和丈夫朱利安唯一的孩子。The agreement, signed on Earth Day, marks the first time the worlds most prolific polluters, including the U.S., Europe, China and India, have all agreed to set specific, verifiable goals to reduce carbon emissions and dependency on fossil fuels. The deal also calls on countries such as Brazil to enforce strict policies on deforestation.这个在“地球日”签订的协议,标志着世界污染物最多的国家们第一次在这方面达成了一致。包括美国,欧洲,中国和印度几个国家和地区,为减少对碳排放和化石燃料的依赖,设立了确实可行的目标。这个协定同时也呼吁像巴西这样的国家用政策严厉打击毁林行为。The deal still has to be ratified by each signatory nation. In the ed States, President Obama is expected to ratify the agreement through executive action. The deadline for ratification is April 21, 2017, one year from now.这个协议仍然有待于被每一个签约国正式批准。美国总统奥巴马也期待着能通过行政权力正式批准这个协定。正式批准的期限是一年后0171日。来 /201605/440774

  

  The UN Security Council adopted a resolution on last Wednesday that imposes new sanctions on the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) in order to curb the countrys nuclear and missile programs.联合国安理会上周三通过一项决议,即为了遏制朝鲜的核导弹计划,将对朝鲜实施一系列新的制裁措施。The resolution was unanimously adopted by the 15 members of the council in response to DPRKs nuclear test on Jan. 6 and a satellite launch on Feb. 7.理事5名成员国一致通过了该决议,该协议是对朝鲜日进行的核试验和2日卫星发射做出的回应In the statement, the council condemned in the strongest terms the nuclear test on Jan. 6 and the satellite launch on Feb. 7, which it said used ballistic missile technology banned by previous UN resolutions. Pyongyang insisted it was a peaceful satellite launch.在该声明中,安理会强烈谴责了1日的核试验和2日的卫星发射。安理会表示,朝鲜发射卫星使用了联合国先前已明令禁止的弹道导弹技术。但是平壤方面坚持认为,这是一次和平的卫星发射。The resolution includes a ban on all exports of strategic materials from the DPRK. It also puts out a ban on supplying aviation fuel to the DPRK. Moreover, it requires member states to inspect all cargo going to and from the DPRK.该决议中包含禁止朝鲜战略物资出口、禁止向朝鲜提供航空燃料和联合国成员国必须对进出朝鲜的货物进行强制检查等条款。UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday welcomed the Security Councils move, saying the DPRK ;must return to full compliance with its international obligations.;联合国秘书长潘基文上周三对安理事会的这一行动表示欢迎,并表示:“朝鲜必须完全履行其国际义务。”Stressing that sanctions are not the objective, Liu Jieyi, Chinas permanent representative to the UN, said the resolution itself cannot offer a fundamental solution to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, and dialogue is the only viable way to resolve the issue.中国常驻联合国代表刘洁仪强调制裁不是目的,并表示这一决议本身不能为朝鲜半岛核问题提供根本性的解决办法,而对话是解决这一问题的唯一可行途径。U.S. President Barack Obama also welcomed the UN resolution , calling it ;a firm, united, and appropriate response by the international community; to halt DPRKs nuclear and missile programs.美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马也对联合国这项决议表示欢迎,并称其是国际社会遏制朝鲜的核计划和导弹计划做出的强硬的、一致的和适当的回应。来 /201603/430016。

  

  

  It is time to pronounce the Trans-Pacific Partnership clinically dead. Hillary Clinton had aly put President Barack Obama’s signature deal the biggest US trade initiative in more than a decade on life support when she came out against it last year. Donald Trump has vowed to scrap it, which meant that whoever took the White House would have pledged its demise.是时候宣布《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议TPP)临床死亡的消息了。去年希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)站出来反对TPP之后,总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)的这份招牌协议——美国十多年来提出的最大型的贸易倡议——就不得不靠机器维持生命了。唐纳德#8226;特朗Donald Trump)更是誓言要废掉TPP。这意味着,无论这两个人谁入主白宫,他们都等于承诺了要终止TPP。Yet the suspicion lingered that Mrs Clinton was simply following her husband’s bait-and-switch tactics. Former president Bill Clinton ran strongly against the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992 only to do whatever it took to ensure Nafta passed after he took office.不过,仍有人在怀疑,希拉里只是在仿效她丈夫的“偷梁换柱”伎俩。前总统比尔#8226;克林Bill Clinton)992年时强烈反对《北美自由贸易协定Nafta),结果上台后却竭尽所能确保Nafta通过。On Tuesday, Terry McAuliffe, the governor of Virginia and longtime friend of the Clintons, hinted that the Democratic nominee had exactly the same U-turn in mind for the 12-nation TPP. He was forced to disavow his words almost instantly. John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign, tweeted that Mrs Clinton would be opposed to TPP before and after the election: “Period. Full Stop.”周二,克林顿夫妇的老朋友、弗吉尼亚州州长特里#8226;麦考利Terry McAuliffe)暗示,对2个成员国缔结的TPP,希拉里这位民主党候选人的想法也有同样的180度大转弯。他几乎立刻就被迫否认自己的话。克林顿竞选班子负责人约翰#8226;波德斯塔(John Podesta)在推特上发言称,无论选前还是选后,希拉里都会反对TPP。他还写下了两个“句号Period. Full Stop.)以示确定以及肯定。It will not be the last time Mrs Clinton will be cajoled to reassure voters that she really means what she says. When she was secretary of state she described the TPP as the “gold standardof trade deals she was for it before she was against it.这不会是希拉里最后一次被劝说向选民保她说话算数。她担任国务卿时曾形容TPP是“黄金标准”的贸易协议——她先是持TPP,后来又反对TPP。Mr Trump, the Republican nominee, will lose no opportunity to hammer her on that implicit contradiction. So too will Bernie Sanderssupporters, whose anti-TPP signs bedecked the Philadelphia convention hall on Monday. To them, and other doubters of Mrs Clinton, her actions on TPP will be the chief barometer of her integrity. Whatever wiggle room she still has will thus continue to shrink.共和党候选人特朗普肯定要抓住机会利用这种明显的前后矛盾来敲打希拉里。伯#8226;桑德Bernie Sanders)的持者们也会这么做。周一,他们在费城的民主党全国代表大会会场上张贴了很多反对TPP的标语。对于他们以及其他怀疑希拉里的人而言,她在TPP方面的举动将成为检验其个人诚信的主要标准。无论她还剩有多少回旋余地,这种余地都会继续缩小。But Mr Podesta left one key gap in his assurance that she would oppose TPP both as candidate and president the lame duck Congress that will take place in the interregnum between November and January. This will be Mr Obama’s last chance to ratify TPP.但波德斯塔关于希拉里无论作为候选人还是总统都会反对TPP的保留有一个关键破绽:从今1月到明年1月这段政权交替期,国会将变成一只坡脚鸭。那将是奥巴马推动TPP获得批准的最后机会。His prospects were aly looking shaky. Last year Congress passed the fast-track negotiating authority by just 10 votes. Most counts suggest that narrow margin has now vanished. Middle America’s antitrade backlash has only intensified.他的胜算看起来不大。去年,国会仅以赞成票多10票的结果通过了快车道谈判授权。当前大多数投票显示,这点儿微弱的优势也已丧失。美国中产阶层反贸易的抵制情绪愈发强烈了。How then could TPP rise from the dead? The only realistic scenario is that Mr Obama could somehow bludgeon the lame duck Congress to rush it on to the statute books after a landslide victory by Mrs Clinton.那么,TPP如何能起死回生呢?唯一有现实可能的情形是,在希拉里取得压倒性大选胜利之后,奥巴马设法胁迫坡脚鸭国会赶紧把TPP写入法典。It is virtually inconceivable Mrs Clinton could reprise her husband’s Nafta pivot on TPP after taking office. Attempting that would drain her political capital in the first few months and toxify whatever chances she had of building a reputation as a trustworthy leader.无法想象希拉里上台后会像其丈夫对待Nafta那样转向持TPP。如果她尝试那么做,上任没几个月她的政治资本就会丧失殆尽,并毁掉打造可信赖领导人形象的所有机会。Mr Sandersbackers have aly made it clear that the Democrats are ripe for a Tea Party-style takeover. A U-turn by Mrs Clinton would invite that fate by confirming every prejudice about Clintonite slipperiness. It would also kill her chances of enacting immigration reform, which she says will be her first priority in her first 100 days.桑德斯的持者已明确指出,民主党人即将面临一场茶党式的接管。如果希拉里的态度来个180度大转弯,就将坐实一切关于希拉里滑头的偏见,从而招致这种命运。这也将扼杀她启动移民改革的机会。她说了,移民改革将是她上任00天内的第一要务。In other words, the TPP in its current form is dead and it will be hard to bring it back to life in any other guise. The hit to America’s global leadership will be huge.换言之,当前形式的TPP已经死了,也很难改头换面复活过来。这将对美国的全球领导力造成巨大打击。Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton originally sold the deal as the economic plank of Washington’s “pivot to Asia It would set in stone the rules of engagement that China would have no choice but to follow.奥巴马和希拉里当初是把TPP作为美国“重返亚洲”战略的经济柱来兜售的。它将把打交道的规则变成白纸黑字,到那时中国除了遵守以外别无选择。Nature abhors a vacuum. If TPP dies at America’s hands, it will be the end of an era. Allies in Asia will look increasingly to China for economic leadership. Europe’s equivalent deal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, will die with it.自然界里是没有真空的。如果TPP死于美国之手,那么一个时代将随之终结。美国的亚洲盟友将日益指望中国在经济领域挑起领导角色。欧洲的同类贸易协议——《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定TTIP)将随之消亡。The era of US-led globalism will begin to unravel. It may well be a price worth paying Mr Trump’s victory would sound the death knell for US globalism. But it is a high price nonetheless.美国主导的“全球主义globalism)的时代将开始落幕。这可能是值得付出的代价——特朗普获胜不啻于预告美国的全球主义将死。但这终究是高昂的代价。来 /201607/457186

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